Is this a good prop bet ?

[btmagnetw]

you lose if a J, 7, or 2 comes. not if a J, 7, and 2 comes.

[Tom1975]

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He loses if the flop contains no j,7, or 2. This will happen:

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50= 44.7%

So he wins the other 55.3% of the time.

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You win 40^3/(52*51*50) = 48.3% of the time.

He wins 51.7% of the time.

That gives him about a 3.4% edge. For every $100 you bet you can expect to lose $3.40.

PairTheBoard

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Why is it 40^3 instead of (40*39*38)?

We're trying to find out the chance that no J72 hits the flop, right? On the first card there are 40 such cards. One of them comes on the first card, so the next card has a 39/51 chance of not being a J72. And so on...

Right? Or where am I messing up?

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You're right, PTB is wrong.

[PairTheBoard]

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He loses if the flop contains no j,7, or 2. This will happen:

40/52 * 39/51 * 38/50= 44.7%

So he wins the other 55.3% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

You win 40^3/(52*51*50) = 48.3% of the time.

He wins 51.7% of the time.

That gives him about a 3.4% edge. For every $100 you bet you can expect to lose $3.40.

PairTheBoard

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Why is it 40^3 instead of (40*39*38)?

We're trying to find out the chance that no J72 hits the flop, right? On the first card there are 40 such cards. One of them comes on the first card, so the next card has a 39/51 chance of not being a J72. And so on...

Right? Or where am I messing up?

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You're right, PTB is wrong.

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Last night I was at my local casino and this guy says that he will bet even money all night that each flop will contain either a jack, seven or duece.


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You're right. My mistake. The 40 out of 52 cards are the Non J,7,2's. If a Non-J,7,2 comes on the first card there are 39 Non-J,7,2's left, etc. I've evidently been spending too much time with Sleeping Beauty on SMP.

That gives the OP about a 44.7% chance of winning, a 55.3% chance of losing, with about a 10.6% -EV. He loses about $10 for every $100 bet. Looks like a worse proposition than the guy in the bar claimed it was.

PairTheBoard