With deep stacks, I always fold top pair!

[billyjex]

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Dude, this is Party. You have TPTK. Stacks aren't really that deep. These donks will never fold top pair, or even middle pair half the time. I probably just bet the turn.

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I agree, sort of. My cash game play has definitely been affecting my tournament play lately, so I have been folding top pair more often.

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I can totally relate to you on this. I find myself not giving enough value to top pair in tournaments after playing so many hands at cash games.

[Holdemphile]

Hey Ansky,

I think the size of your preflop raise, to about 1/10 of your stacks, obligates you to call on the river. If the pot wasn't so large preflop, my analysis would be a bit different. I don't like pushing the turn, because you would be giving your opponent the right odds to call your preflop raise with any pair, as he would be paying 500 to play for your whole stack of 5000, and I don't think he's going to put you on a flush and fold any hand that's ahead of you, at least not very often. If your opponents are going to call raises preflop of 10% of their stack with AcQc, or Jc10c then you have to pay them something when they make their flush for calling that large a raise preflop and that large a flop bet. By calling the 2000 on the river, your opponent playing any pair for trips value paid 500 preflop to play for roughly 3500 of your chips, 1 in 7 exactly. That's almost but not quite the right odds for them to call preflop, but sometimes you'll have an overpair and will make a higher set, which is why you really want to make about 10X as much as you have to pay to see a flop with any pair. Factor in the possibility that he is on pure bluff, or has KK and is putting you on QQ or JJ, and I think a call makes the most sense.

Holdemphile

[Holdemphile]

By the way, does anyone know the odds of flopping two pair?

Holdemphile

[grandgnu]

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Early in the Party 500k. I have no reads. All stacks are around 5000. UTG+1 opens to 170 (30/60), next to act calls, and I raise to 500 in middle position with A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Remember I have the king of clubs). Folds around to them they both call.

Flop: (1500 ish) A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checks to me I bet 1000. UTG folds, next guy calls.

Turn (3500 ish) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , he checks, I check behind.

River (still 3500 ish) offsuit Q. He bets 2000. I fold.

My thoughts on the hand to come... In the mean time, discuss!

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This is rigged, you have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in your hand and it's also on the board.

Also, your opponents bet on the river could be him realizing the only way he can win the hand is to bluff at it.

I would have bet the turn myself, and called a push on the turn as well.

Checking the turn, I'd call the river bet. There's 5,500 in the pot and it's 2K for you to call, seems like a worthwhile investment.

Not to mention this is early, and most of the donks out there accumulate chips because they push players like you out of pots like this.

[C-Dog]

Here is my full thinking here, which goes against some people's thoughts.

Preflop, once the villain cold calls, then calls again, I am thinking Any pocket pair JJ and below, AQ-AT, KQs-KJs. As it is still early and there are no reads. people do sattelite into these things.

On the flop, You bet 2/3rds and he calls. This would lead me to think AQ-AT, still the pocketpairs, and the KQc or KJc. I would tend not to think set because the pot is large and the board is drawy so I would expect a set to make their move on the flop.

On the turn, I would further rule out a set, since the villain would surely not want to check his set here, as the board is really bad for a free card now. He may have made his flush, but you have redraws and I still think you probably have the best hand still. The big problem here is that the pot is out of control and you cannot bet without pot committing, so I would personally push here.

On the river, the villain bets 2K of his remaining 3.5K which leads to me think bluff or strong hand begging for a call. I would think bluff more, as I think a strong hand begging for a call would bet more like 1200-1500 giving the nice price to call.

I would call this river, maybe that makes me a donk, and I certainly have more to learn, but that is how I would play this.

C-Dog

[Ansky]

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Also, your opponents bet on the river could be him realizing the only way he can win the hand is to bluff at it.


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Name a hand that he can have that he could have gotten to the river with.

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Checking the turn, I'd call the river bet. There's 5,500 in the pot and it's 2K for you to call, seems like a worthwhile investment.

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What does this mean? This statement is sort of meaningless.

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

I like this hand, really feels like a pretty poorly played set or AQ. I think a worse ace is highly unlikely. I hope your plan was to stick it in if checked to on the river.

I don't like your small reraise preflop. I think the strong play with stacks this deep is to flat call. If you do reraise, reraise more (700ish feels right). You are just asking to lose your pants here with that preflop play. Your reverse implied odds are going to be high, regardless of your postflop skill.

But overall, I like your line. I think a turn check is much better then a bet... You are either looking at someone against you with 2-3 outs, or you are crushed. Against the right players, checking here will save you your stack.

Against the wrong player, (a crazy nut like me who might call your flop bet with nothing), you need to just maximize your value versus worst hands... and not fold [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img].

-Jason

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

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To everyone:

This is going to come off as very pretentious, and I will sound like a big [censored], but I'm going to say it anyway. I am not a random donk with 4 posts that comes in with my results oriented thinking asking for generic hand help. I am attempting to generate a discussion about the possible ways to maximize against the most obvious hand ranges that we can come up with for the villain.

Exit, you know that I value your advice in any form, even generic form. But I ask that you go a little further than: "i think i'm pushing the turn. and if you check behind, i think you ahve to call the river bet." While this would suffice for a lot of people who post hands where they simply want to be told what to do, this will not suffice for me.

To all who say once I check the turn, I'm sort of obligated to call the river: Normally I would agree with you that when you check behind with top pair, you should be calling the river bet because by checking you are inducing bluffs. However, in this spot you'd be pretty hard pressed to think of a hand that he could possibly have by the river that would bluff. A flush draw got there on the turn, and there are no straight draws possible (aside from something like 46 or whatever). Because there are no missed draws, and he could not have been floating with junk OOP, there are almost no possible hands that this guy could have that would bluff the river... UNLESS, he is a total moron donkey (which he very well could be). If you think this is the case often enough, then state that. However, if we give our opponent credit at least for having a human brain, than you can find almost 0 hands that would bluff the river.

As for whether he could be value betting with a worse hand: I do not think so. AT, AJ are pretty slim possibilities, and a river bet has very little value with those hands.

On the river, I thought to myself: I can only beat a bluff. Check/call flop, check turn, lead river is so often the betting pattern for a bluff, so I thought I was going to call. Then I realized there were almost no possible bluffing hands. After this I asked myself if he could be value betting any worse hands? I figured most likely not, so I folded.

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Ansky,

I read this after I made my post.

In short, you are really improving. This is a really good thought process. You sould like a no limit player to me.

-Jason

[grandgnu]

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Name a hand that he can have that he could have gotten to the river with.

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Well, let's look at it this way:

UTG raises roughly 3x the BB, he cold-calls the raise and you come over the top and make it 500 to go.

His hand range can be so big, because it's early in a tournament. He could be on a smallish pocket pair, or an A/x type hand, etc.

If he's got Q/Q, K/K or A/A you would expect a re-raise. A/K would likely also re-raise.

Because there's an Ace on the flop and in your hand, it's less likely that he has one himself, although it's not impossible.

All I can deduce is that this guy is a typical early-tournament donkey, and I won't likely be giving him credit for a hand.

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Checking the turn, I'd call the river bet. There's 5,500 in the pot and it's 2K for you to call, seems like a worthwhile investment.

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What does this mean? This statement is sort of meaningless.

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Well, I don't advocate checking the turn. You likely have the best hand, and you have a very strong draw as well. The river Queen isn't a great card for you, but it's not awful.

You may have induced your opponent to bluff at the pot, since you checked the turn. I see this a lot with the fish early in a tournament, it's how they accumulate large chip stacks early, because they just bet with nothing or missed draws or terrible hands, and good players lay down to them.

They build huge stacks early and then usually lose it all in the middle game when they continue to bluff too much.

I'd want to accumulate chips here, and this pot has enough in it, and my hand is strong enough, that I'm going to call that bet. If you lose, well, you're down but not out.

I don't mind taking the risk in this spot. In addition, his bet of 2K means he leaves himself with some chips if you come over the top (if he is indeed bluffing). His bet is a bit too large to be a value bet, in my opinion. I would expect a smaller, milking bet, if he was a thinking opponent. A bet that we can't help but to call.

From his point of view, he checked on the flop (if he had hit something or had a draw, oftentimes they'll come out firing). You made a good sized bet, perhaps large enough to make him think you didn't want a call.

He then checks the turn and you check, which makes him believe you might've whiffed the flop and were hoping to take it down with your original bet.

His river 2K bet looks like a "hey, I'm betting 2K cause I think you are weak and will fold, but I'm leaving myself some chips just in case I'm wrong".

[Rickyroodido]

I like OPs line. Very smart!
However I think its wrong. As a default play I always assume a high probabilty to the chance that my opponents could be braindead early in a online tourny.

Not a very fun spot to be in on the river, but im calling. Simple because the turn check WILL induce a bluff/bet from alot of hands which you beat. Which hands? well Ax, any pocket pair, 2 random cards.. and if you induce a bluff you have to call.

I would push the turn expecting to get called by a worse hand.