short stack push for 2xBB, ATo on button - Page 3

Sherman · #21 04-13-2007, 03:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Here are the results. I will have to try flat calling with QQ-AA. I was thinking afterwards a fold was better if the blinds are this aggressive.

I don't see the point in the isolation raise everyone is talking about. If you isolate, you are about a flop against the short stack with 300 in dead money, for about an expected gain of 150. I can't see how reraising and folding to a push is cEV+.

[/ QUOTE ]

These aren't really results. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

betgo · #22 04-13-2007, 03:08 PM

Sorry, results.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

CO (t9528)
Hero (t7960)
SB (t3240)
BB (t5190)
UTG (t8075)
UTG+1 (t5330)
MP1 (t380)
MP2 (t6730)
MP3 (t1600)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 raises to t380, 3 folds, Hero calls t380, SB raises to t3240, 1 fold, Hero folds.

Flop: (t4200) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t4200) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t4200) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t4200

Results in white below: 
SB has 6h 6s (four of a kind, sixes).
MP1 has 7c 9h (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: SB wins t4200. at isol

JFJB · #23 04-13-2007, 03:12 PM

Here is my math, which is greatly simplified. It assumes re-raising range of the blinds is top 10% of hands. So out of 10 times you get in this situation 8 times neither blinds will call and the other 2 times one of the blind (it may actually be both of them) will raise. This assumption is wrong because a player who wakes up with AA may decide to simply flat call but you have to deal with it then...

So 80% of the time I raise to 700 both blinds fold. I then assume I have a 60% chance of winning a 1070 pot. 40% of the time I will loose 385.

0.8 * 0.6 * 1070 = 515

0.8 * 0.4 * -385 = -125

When I get reraise I loose 700

0.2 * 1.0 *-700 = -140

Overall when I raise to 700 in this pot I make 250 chips.

What do you think?

betgo · #24 04-13-2007, 03:15 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
No antes.

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And I guess no reads on the 'awareness' of the blinds.

So when it gets to you there is 685 in the pot. I like to raise between 700 and 800 here to denies good odds to the blinds to flat call to see a flop. A raise to 650 give 3:1 pot odds for a flat call from the BB!

Greatly simplyfied, assuming that the reraising range of the blinds are top 10% of hands, then 80% of the times both blind will fold. The raise here with A-10 is clearly +EV (I calculated approximately +250 on average going in against MP1 a 60% favorite and folding to a raise from the blinds).

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, assume you are a 60% favorite against the short stack, you raise to 750, the blinds reraise 20% of the time to which you fold, and the blinds never flat call.

If you isolate, there is 1060 in the pot. Your average gain is +256. If you are reraised, you lose 750. So your average gain is 256 * .8 - 750 * .2 = + 54 chips.

JFJB · #25 04-13-2007, 03:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No antes.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I guess no reads on the 'awareness' of the blinds.

So when it gets to you there is 685 in the pot. I like to raise between 700 and 800 here to denies good odds to the blinds to flat call to see a flop. A raise to 650 give 3:1 pot odds for a flat call from the BB!

Greatly simplyfied, assuming that the reraising range of the blinds are top 10% of hands, then 80% of the times both blind will fold. The raise here with A-10 is clearly +EV (I calculated approximately +250 on average going in against MP1 a 60% favorite and folding to a raise from the blinds).

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, assume you are a 60% favorite against the short stack, you raise to 750, the blinds reraise 20% of the time to which you fold, and the blinds never flat call.

If you isolate, there is 1060 in the pot. Your average gain is +256. If you are reraised, you lose 750. So your average gain is 256 * .8 - 750 * .2 = + 54 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK I do not think I agree with all of the math here.

0,6 of 1070 is 642

0,4 I loose 385 which means 154

Net here is 488.

0.8 * 488 - 0.2 *700 = 250

How is that?

JFJB · #26 04-13-2007, 03:46 PM

OK found another way to look at it. How about this.

100 hands

80 hands both blind folds

48 (60% of 80 hands) wins of 1060 = 50 880

32 (40% of 80 hands) lost of 385 = -12 320

20 hands lost of 700 = -14 000

So after 100 hands I net 24560. Over 100 hands that means about 250 a hand.

sethypooh21 · #27 04-13-2007, 03:59 PM

Wow, what do we think about SB's shove with 66 here?

betgo · #28 04-13-2007, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No antes.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I guess no reads on the 'awareness' of the blinds.

So when it gets to you there is 685 in the pot. I like to raise between 700 and 800 here to denies good odds to the blinds to flat call to see a flop. A raise to 650 give 3:1 pot odds for a flat call from the BB!

Greatly simplyfied, assuming that the reraising range of the blinds are top 10% of hands, then 80% of the times both blind will fold. The raise here with A-10 is clearly +EV (I calculated approximately +250 on average going in against MP1 a 60% favorite and folding to a raise from the blinds).

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, assume you are a 60% favorite against the short stack, you raise to 750, the blinds reraise 20% of the time to which you fold, and the blinds never flat call.

If you isolate, there is 1060 in the pot. Your average gain is +256. If you are reraised, you lose 750. So your average gain is 256 * .8 - 750 * .2 = + 54 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK I do not think I agree with all of the math here.

0,6 of 1070 is 642

0,4 I loose 385 which means 154

Net here is 488.

0.8 * 488 - 0.2 *700 = 250

How is that?

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't argue with me about math. My calculations are correct.

If you isolate and win the hand, you win 685 chips. You have to subtract the 385 you invested.

.6* 685 = 411. So net is 411-154 = 257. .8*257 - .2 *700 = +79 chips. I calculated +54 chips, partly because I assumed a raise to 750 rather than 700.

Sherman · #29 04-13-2007, 04:03 PM

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Wow, what do we think about SB's shove with 66 here?

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I like it given that hero just called. If hero had made an iso-raise and I was sitting in the SB w/66, I'd probably toss it.

However, given Nth level thinking, I suppose the shove is actually worse b/c Hero called and would have been better had Hero made iso-raise. True?

JFJB · #30 04-13-2007, 04:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
No antes.

[/ QUOTE ]

And I guess no reads on the 'awareness' of the blinds.

So when it gets to you there is 685 in the pot. I like to raise between 700 and 800 here to denies good odds to the blinds to flat call to see a flop. A raise to 650 give 3:1 pot odds for a flat call from the BB!

Greatly simplyfied, assuming that the reraising range of the blinds are top 10% of hands, then 80% of the times both blind will fold. The raise here with A-10 is clearly +EV (I calculated approximately +250 on average going in against MP1 a 60% favorite and folding to a raise from the blinds).

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, assume you are a 60% favorite against the short stack, you raise to 750, the blinds reraise 20% of the time to which you fold, and the blinds never flat call.

If you isolate, there is 1060 in the pot. Your average gain is +256. If you are reraised, you lose 750. So your average gain is 256 * .8 - 750 * .2 = + 54 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK I do not think I agree with all of the math here.

0,6 of 1070 is 642

0,4 I loose 385 which means 154

Net here is 488.

0.8 * 488 - 0.2 *700 = 250

How is that?

[/ QUOTE ]
Don't argue with me about math. My calculations are correct.

If you isolate and win the hand, you win 685 chips. You have to subtract the 385 you invested.

.6* 685 = 411. So net is 411-154 = 257. .8*257 - .2 *700 = +79 chips. I calculated +54 chips, partly because I assumed a raise to 750 rather than 700.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betgo,

Do not get mad here. I am not trying to argue with I just want to get this wright regardless of who is right or wrong.

BTW I respect you quite a bit as a poster here and as a player (expect for that one time when you pushed from the button with KJ got called by the SB with KQ and me in the BB with AJ. You took both of us blinds out of the tourney with your str8... lol).

(15 minutes later) Dam you are right. Well thanks. Looking foward to see you at the table.

Cheers