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#21
03-13-2007, 05:13 PM
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Re: Another Satellite bubble question
[ QUOTE ]
Guys, given the stack sizes, THAY3R's skill, the skill of other players, and the fact that 3/4 of the players left get a seat...I can't see THAY3R being much less than 70% to get a seat if he folds. He might even be closer to 75% (even odds). Is KK better than 70-75% against villain's rasing range...I don't have the damn software with me. Someone run some ranges and this problem is easily solved. Sherman [/ QUOTE ] I'd say the chances of getting a seat if we fold are closer to 60% at best. You really overestimate the role of skill in this situation I think. 
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#23
03-13-2007, 05:19 PM
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Re: Another Satellite bubble question
[ QUOTE ]
i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't matter how good Thayer is, it matters how retarded his opponents are. If they're bad enough such that shorty's really really likely to bust out without his help, then he doesn't need to call here.
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#24
03-13-2007, 05:20 PM
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Re: Another Satellite bubble question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't matter how good Thayer is, it matters how retarded his opponents are. If they're bad enough such that shorty's really really likely to bust out without his help, then he doesn't need to call here. [/ QUOTE ] How likely can he possibly be to get his chips in as a worse than 25-75 dog?
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#26
03-13-2007, 06:09 PM
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Re: Another Satellite bubble question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't matter how good Thayer is, it matters how retarded his opponents are. If they're bad enough such that shorty's really really likely to bust out without his help, then he doesn't need to call here. [/ QUOTE ] Some of the players did strike me as bad. For instance, the SB to my BB last 5 rounds had completed the blind and then folded to my push. He seemed pretty retarded. Also the 2 bigger stacks were recently involved in around a 10k pot with no showdown which made no sense to me.
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#28
03-13-2007, 07:24 PM
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Re: Another Satellite bubble question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] i think with 10 BB there isn't a player in the world who is good enough to pass up this edge [/ QUOTE ] It doesn't matter how good Thayer is, it matters how retarded his opponents are. If they're bad enough such that shorty's really really likely to bust out without his help, then he doesn't need to call here. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I meant by THAY3R's skill edge. Meaning that if his understanding of Sat. Bubble play is far greater than his opponents, this could be a fold.
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#29
03-13-2007, 07:42 PM
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Re: Another Satellite bubble question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Guys, given the stack sizes, THAY3R's skill, the skill of other players, and the fact that 3/4 of the players left get a seat...I can't see THAY3R being much less than 70% to get a seat if he folds. He might even be closer to 75% (even odds). Is KK better than 70-75% against villain's rasing range...I don't have the damn software with me. Someone run some ranges and this problem is easily solved. Sherman [/ QUOTE ] I'd say the chances of getting a seat if we fold are closer to 60% at best. You really overestimate the role of skill in this situation I think. [/ QUOTE ] How about this for a better estimate ignoring skill. If THAY3R folds, he will have 13% of the total chips, which is 12% less than the average (expected value) 4 handed. So let's subtract 12 from 75 = 63%. So, without skill included at all, THAY3R is approximately 63% to make the top 3. Given his reads on his opponents, I'll be generous and add 2% to his edge to make an approximation of 65%. From looking at some numbers in PokerStove, I'd estimate he is about 73-75% against villain's range (includes all pairs, all aces, all broadway once including Ts and once without). Given these estimates, it looks like THAY3R's edge is about 8-10% which I think we all would agree merits a call.
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