AJ off - man i hate that hand.

[22pajo]

[ QUOTE ]
how about a postflop read to help with your postflop decision?


[/ QUOTE ]

None i'm afraid. Haven't seen him check/raise before.
Does a c/r by such a passive player post flop not usually mean we are beaten in this spot?
My range for him at this point is AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A6, A3
Which means i only beat AT.

[jaxUp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
how about a postflop read to help with your postflop decision?


[/ QUOTE ]

None i'm afraid. Haven't seen him check/raise before.
Does a c/r by such a passive player post flop not usually mean we are beaten in this spot?
My range for him at this point is AK, AQ, AJ, AT, A6, A3
Which means i only beat AT.

[/ QUOTE ]

he'd likely reraise AK/AQ pf so I'd eliminate those from the range

[22pajo]

[ QUOTE ]

he'd likely reraise AK/AQ pf so I'd eliminate those from the range

[/ QUOTE ]

Still means i'm behind most of his range though, right?

[Riku]

Hey, thanks Marchron! I didn´t really even think about those Q outs. Alarming [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[Big Folder]

[ QUOTE ]
It's one thing to call a turn raise with outs, but what are our outs here? We have 3 outs against A3 and A6. And we are drawing dead to any set and AQ. I doubt he has AQ wth his pf raise % since he didnt 3-bet, but I think its pretty clear that with this size pot we have no business calling when we feel we are beat and have at best 3 outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

My first instinct here was to call down. You guys are makign some valid points as to why a fold would be ok. However, Jaxup is right, .86 in a vacuum could mean a lot of things. A read would do wonders for this hand.

Another thing is you have a lot more outs than 3. If he flopped A3 two pair you'll have 6 outs. (I forgot to figure in the Q kicker and originally thought A3 would give us 9 outs. Hidden outs are tricky!) Hidden outs of the board pairing gives us these extra outs. For instance, if the 6 or Q pairs on the river, we win since it counterfeits his lower two pair. If we hit our jack we win as well.

If he hit his two pair A6 on the turn we have 6 outs for the same reason. If he had AQ or a set we're done.

edit: this was said above, but whatever

So while we potentially have a decent amount of outs the next question is "is this pot worth it?" Its 5.25bb after the check raise. We'll have to put in two more bets to win 7bb so 7:2. Thats a pretty small profit margin if it exists. I think you can fold in this, but if there was a read we could play this more confidently. Make reads guys, dont use PT as a crutch.

[antneye]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's one thing to call a turn raise with outs, but what are our outs here? We have 3 outs against A3 and A6. And we are drawing dead to any set and AQ. I doubt he has AQ wth his pf raise % since he didnt 3-bet, but I think its pretty clear that with this size pot we have no business calling when we feel we are beat and have at best 3 outs.
Believe me, I make this mistake all the time, but this is 2 bets we are talking about here......this could be our profit for the next 100 hands we are pissing away.

If this guy had a big post flop aggression factor I would consider calling down, but 200 hands is a good enough sample for me to believe his .8.

I'll eat my hat if OP shows us that he called down and his hand held up.

[/ QUOTE ]
We have six outs against A3 or A6 (three J's, three Q's). The only set he could reasonably have is 33, since AA and QQ three-ball it preflop and he'd likely fold 66 to the flop bet. We're also winning if he has a worse ace — not terribly likely, but possible, since AT is definitely in his range.

If this were a loose-passive opponent, then yeah, we fold to the check/raise all day long and feel good about it. But this dude's just laggy enough to merit a calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

right. I forgot our ace. I still think he is passive enough post flop that we are beat. And even 6 pure outs (which they aren't)is not enough in a pot this small.

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
We have six outs against A3 or A6 (three J's, three Q's).

If this were a loose-passive opponent, then yeah, we fold to the check/raise all day long and feel good about it. But this dude's just laggy enough to merit a calldown.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're just barely getting 7:1. What would you do if the river brought a Q? In order to make your turn play correct, you would have to bet...

[bozlax]

Wow, there is some terrible advice in this thread. JaxUp provided the lone ray of sunshine in the darkness, and everybody should read what he posted, 3 or 4 times if necessary to take in it's full meaning.

[nit]Marchon, we have 7.5 outs against A3, as a 6 gives us a split.[/nit]

The guy was in the BB! He could have 63, Q6, a bare queen and be fishing to see if you have the ace, 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and semi-bluffing you, nearly anything for eff's sake! Do yourselves a favor, and find the middle ground; every posted hand, people are either hand-reading only the hands that we're dead to or the hands we're crushing. You have to look at both.

This pot is large, you're getting 6:1 on a call with TPGK, and no, you don't necessarily have to call a river bet, but there also won't necessarily BE a river bet (if he's semi-bluffing or taking a shot with TPNK).

This is a super-easy call.

[unterfish]

Im not so sure. A turn check-raise by a semiLAG really means something big, i. e. two pair or better. On the contrary, a donk wouldnt mean that much, but this is a check-raise.
Which makes this a fold IMO.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Im not so sure. A turn check-raise by a semiLAG really means something big, i. e. two pair or better. On the contrary, a donk wouldnt mean that much, but this is a check-raise.
Which makes this a fold IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume that the c/r means that we have no more than 3 outs (i.e. Villan has AA/QQ/66/33/AK/AQ) then, yes, this is a fold. Given how laggro Vill is preflop, you HAVE to reduce that to a set of 6s or 3s because anything else gets 3-bet from the blinds, or donkbet on either the flop or turn.

Weighting outs (combo, combinations, outs, weighted outs):

66, 3, 0, 0
33, 3, 0, 0
A6, 9, 6, 1
A3, 9, 7.5, 1.3
Q6, 9, 8, 1.4
Q3, 9, 8, 1.4
63, 9, 8, 1.4

Total = 6.5

Between implied odds for your outs, and some non-zero percentage of the time that you're ahead on the turn, this is an easy call. Realize that you probably can't call another bet on the river, tho, and depending on the card you may not want to bet it yourself if checked to (that's why we don't have to worry about complicated calcs to reduce our outs for the straight or flush hitting).

I'd also like to point out that there's a critter that you'll find starting around 1/2, but not so much below that: the LAG-TAG. This guy plays a lot of hands strongly preflop, but then becomes really hard to read postflop because he will play hard with ANY part of the board, but give up with none of it (it's hard because you don't know how much of the board he hit). I'm not saying this is that guy, but this is what his stats would look like (maybe a bit higher VPIP, but not a lot). If this is that guy you're better off checking behind on the turn and calling one on the river.