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#21
08-20-2006, 01:12 PM
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Re: Toast?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] against this sort of opponent where you would hate folding to a 3 bet, is it better to just call down from the turn without raising? [/ QUOTE ] Only when he 3bets, which is rarely. [/ QUOTE ] It's really not that rare. TT, 88, 66, A8, A6, AT and even T8/T6 may 3-bet here. All these are very possible holdings at this point. I agree with the top quote here, if we're going to raise this turn we have to go to showdown. Otherwise, I think we should just call it down. Putting ourselves in a position to fold TP2K here is no good. [/ QUOTE ] All of those hands are possibilities based on the action, so I'm going to renege on this one and say you're right. I am just a little annoyed at this recent trend to call down everything just because "getting 3bet sucks". It is one factor to consider but it's not everything. You also have to consider how often you have the best hand and how often they would bet the river with worse hands. This hand isn't really your typical 'donk' because villian took initiative on the flop and is more likely than usual to lead the turn with a monster hand as opposed to C/R. A lot of players would just C/C down from the turn with KT or whatever. 
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#22
08-20-2006, 05:46 PM
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Re: Toast?
As someone pointed out my odds are wrong. They are, in fact, 12:2 to call down. In order to figure out what to do here, I propose we look at what our opponent could have that beats us and how many outs we have against those hands. Then we look at hands that we beat and the outs they have against us to determine how much he needs to have these hands before we can call down.
Format: Hand/outs we have/combos - reason I discounted some combos AT/3/6 A8/3/6 A6/3/3 - for flop c/r T8/5/9 T6/5/2 - for pf 86/5/4 - for pf TT/0/2 - no raise pf 88/0/3 66/0/3 75/0/6 - for pf 44 combos Weighted average of outs 2.727 ~16-1 Combos weighted for the outs we have against them: 41.5373 Now what are some hands he could have that we beat: J9 A9 A7 T9 QJ Since we are getting 6-1 and we have 41.5373 combos out against us, we need him to be bluffing and lose with 6.9228 combos. He's going to bluff and win about 16% of the time. So we need him to be bluffing 8.0305 combos here. So after all that math, it's still a matter of experience and judgment. I think it's very rare that he has any of those hands that we beat. This is a huge play by him. If he's going to play a flush draw aggressively, I think it's much more likely he c/c the flop and c/r the turn. As good players, we tend it c/r the flop and lead the turn when we want to play a draw fast because that's generally how we play a made hand. Plus it costs less. But a bad player wants to scare you into folding and the scariest move to them is a turn c/r. Another thing is that, while most fish aren't good hand readers, it's pretty clear what we have here, and I doubt he thinks we're folding an A. Most of the hands above require him to have c/r'ed a gut shot on the flop. We've all seen this at one time or another but it's far from common. I think the parlay between him c/r the flop with those hands and then b/3b'ing the turn makes it almost impossible that he has them. So we're left pretty much with J9, and he'll have to play it this aggressively about half the time. To me, when I look at his stats, I just don't see it in him. ILP, For the most part I agree that you shouldn’t raise unless you have a plan for a 3-bet, but there are certainly situations were this doesn’t apply. Namely when you have a clear raise and a 3-bet is pretty unlikely. This could happen when you have something like bottom two on a draw ridden board. When he 3-bets, you have to decide whether he would vastly over play tp. In any case, I had a clear plan when I raised the turn here. I was going to call down because I have A [censored] Q!
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#23
08-20-2006, 05:52 PM
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Re: Toast?
[ QUOTE ]
ILP, For the most part I agree that you shouldn’t raise unless you have a plan for a 3-bet, but there are certainly situations were this doesn’t apply. Namely when you have a clear raise and a 3-bet is pretty unlikely. This could happen when you have something like bottom two on a draw ridden board. When he 3-bets, you have to decide whether he would vastly over play tp. In any case, I had a clear plan when I raised the turn here. I was going to call down because I have A [censored] Q! [/ QUOTE ] Leader, when I have bottom two pair and my turn raise gets 3bet, I dont think, I just call down, so even in this example I know what to do if raised. Online, I believe this calldown will always be profitable assuming so strong read to the contrary. About your plan with Top pair. This looks good to me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I dont fold top pair in HU pots vs aggressive players, so If I raised the turn I would execute the same plan.
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#24
08-20-2006, 05:57 PM
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Re: Toast?
Leader, could you explain how you come to the conclusion that we have 38 combos ahead of us here? When I tally up the total of that list of combos you have there, I get 44.. What am I missing? Also, I suck at math and was curious how you got these numbers:
[ QUOTE ] Weighted average of outs 2.921 ~15-1 Combos weighted for the outs we have against them: 35.587 [/ QUOTE ] Thanks in advance.
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#25
08-20-2006, 06:05 PM
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Re: Toast?
[ QUOTE ]
Leader, could you explain how you come to the conclusion that we have 38 combos ahead of us here? When I tally up the total of that list of combos you have there, I get 44.. What am I missing? Also, I suck at math and was curious how you got these numbers: [ QUOTE ] Weighted average of outs 2.921 ~15-1 Combos weighted for the outs we have against them: 35.587 [/ QUOTE ] Thanks in advance. [/ QUOTE ] Thank you. I can't add apparently. It should be fixed now. It just makes it more of a fold.
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#26
08-20-2006, 06:11 PM
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Re: Toast?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] ILP, For the most part I agree that you shouldn’t raise unless you have a plan for a 3-bet, but there are certainly situations were this doesn’t apply. Namely when you have a clear raise and a 3-bet is pretty unlikely. This could happen when you have something like bottom two on a draw ridden board. When he 3-bets, you have to decide whether he would vastly over play tp. In any case, I had a clear plan when I raised the turn here. I was going to call down because I have A [censored] Q! [/ QUOTE ] Leader, when I have bottom two pair and my turn raise gets 3bet, I dont think, I just call down, so even in this example I know what to do if raised. Online, I believe this calldown will always be profitable assuming so strong read to the contrary. [/ QUOTE ] Well I could make another example but there are clearly situations were it's correct to raise but what to do with a 3-bet is unclear because the outcomes are close EV wise. [ QUOTE ] About your plan with Top pair. This looks good to me. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I dont fold top pair in HU pots vs aggressive players, so If I raised the turn I would execute the same plan. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I like my reasons for folding though. As I said, it's about experience and judgment which are going to vary among players.
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#27
08-20-2006, 06:32 PM
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Re: Toast?
[ QUOTE ]
Villain will have A9 / A7 enough here to call down. True EDIT : I think a good line is : Cap turn / Check/fold river UI True [/ QUOTE ] folding is to the turn 3bet is better than capping the turn. You must be running really well.
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