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#11
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Before 2nd guessing your raise on the flop, I think a Harrington style analysis is in order:
You almost certainly have the best hand on the flop, so how much you should raise should be determined by the odds you will be giving him. Naturally, you are planning to bet allin on the turn, so we only have to look at what his odds are to see the next card. After you raise, the odds are Immediate: 1575/400 = 3.94 We'll assume he gets the rest of your stack if he helps Implied: 2475/400 = 6.19 Lets say he is betting a Q or a 9 He needs 42/5 or 8.4 to 1 to make a call profitable If he is betting an open ender He needs 42/8 or 5.25 to 1 to make it profitable I think it is more likely that he has a pair, but even if each of these type hands were equally likely (50% pair, 50% open ender), then avg implied odds he needs is 6.82 to 1 You only gave him 6.19 to 1, so your raise was fine, even if he wouldn't bet an even more marginal hand, like a gutshot, pocket pair or overcards. If you think a bigger raise would lose him, then you priced it right because you actually want him to call. BTW, you didn't say what the tourney buy-in was. On the turn: Low buy in > snap-call High buy in > deep in the tank, then call |
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