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#12
04-12-2007, 03:39 AM
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Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
For as much as I don't like calling off my money here with AQ, unfortunately, I think you have to. You only have 5 Big Blinds. He has even less chips which opens up his range. Though he is in an early position, the blinds are going to eat him alive the next hand so he had to push with a wider range than he normally would. The only problem really is there is action behind you but at this point you have to try and accumulate some chips so that you can play an effective bubble. If you lose here, you at least don't bubble but if you do win, you'll have a pretty reasonable chip stack and you should be able to cash/make final table and hopefully take the whole thing down. Also, I'm not sure if you mentioned this point or not but what was the dollar amount on the buy in? If it was a low buy in, then yeah, you probably do have to call. Though I hate to stereotype just because it is a lower buy in, it is something to consider. If it is a $5 tournament, then AQ is going to be the best hand in this spot more often than it would in say a $100+ buy in tournament. Though this may not necessarily be true in all cases, I feel that it is something to think about.
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#14
04-12-2007, 04:52 AM
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Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
[ QUOTE ]
Also, I'm not sure if you mentioned this point or not but what was the dollar amount on the buy in? If it was a low buy in, then yeah, you probably do have to call. Though I hate to stereotype just because it is a lower buy in, it is something to consider. If it is a $5 tournament, then AQ is going to be the best hand in this spot more often than it would in say a $100+ buy in tournament. Though this may not necessarily be true in all cases, I feel that it is something to think about. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, I deliberately did not mention this as I felt it would unfairly skew people's opinions, as this was only a $10+$1 MTT. However, it's a special/private MTT so the standard is many many times higher than your regular $10 donkament...
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#15
04-12-2007, 04:55 AM
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Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
[ QUOTE ]
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 60.300% 59.66% 00.64% 245157384 2645394.00 { 66+, AKs, AKo } Hand 1: 39.700% 39.06% 00.64% 160504788 2645394.00 { AQs } You are ev neutral at best. Folding and open shoving the next hand has a greater expected value than calling here. This is a rediculous spot but it is a fold with your read. Obviously this is an instainstainstacall against any other opponent [/ QUOTE ] I initially put villlian on about that range, 77+ and AK, but I do not believe this is my best case scenario, but my worst, and if this makes it about 0 ev, then I believe the chances of villians range being slightly wider mean the call is the way to go... After speaking to villian after the tournament was over (he is a friend and went on to come 3rd), he told me that his range there was any pair, plus Aces down to AT, which by my workings means I was about a coinflip against his range. With this knowledge, I assume a call is standard? Of course, I didn't know this at the time, but even with his tight play, I suspected his range was wider than 77+ and AK...
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#18
04-12-2007, 10:31 AM
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Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
[ QUOTE ]
After speaking to villian after the tournament was over (he is a friend and went on to come 3rd), he told me... [/ QUOTE ] Since you know this guy, you should have had enough info for a meta-read. That is, is he smart enough to know he's established a tight image, and cunning enough to use it to steal/semi-bluff? That would be the tiebreaker for me.
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#20
04-12-2007, 10:41 AM
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Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
Next two pots are more than likely going to be called by the blinds that will have 1/3 their chips in. You have a low M and need to double more than once before the end. Shove...regardless of your opponent. Chances are you will not see this good a hand before you're the BB again. Shove shove shove.
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