Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Ok, it's getting to the business end of a 116 entrant MTT, 8 seat tables, with 17 players left, 10 of which will cash.

You're UTG+2, stacks are as follows, with $500/$1000 blinds, no ante.

SB sitting in seat 1 with $6839.77
BB sitting in seat 2 with $17180.12
UTG sitting in seat 3 with $3545.98
UTG+1 sitting in seat 4 with $3427.28
HERO sitting in seat 5 with $5625.00
MP sitting in seat 6 with $16094.82
CO sitting in seat 7 with $3287.14
Button sitting in seat 8 with $6950.00 [Dealer]

UTG folds, UTG+1 pushes ($3427.28)...

You have A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]...

Hero?


UTG+1 has been playing notably tight, going down to almost 1BB only at one point. He has not shown many hands down, but when in the BB a few hands ago and it was folded to the Button who put him all in, he folded and showed 55...

Thoughts please.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

It would be difficult but i would fold there is too much action behind you.

However to win a tournament you have to gamble and win races and given your chip stack vs the blind schedule now might be a good time to move. If you don't fold go all in and to try to keep the field thin - if he has a small pair you are in a race heads up.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It would be difficult but i would fold there is too much action behind you.

However to win a tournament you have to gamble and win races and given your chip stack vs the blind schedule now might be a good time to move. If you don't fold go all in and to try to keep the field thin - if he has a small pair you are in a race heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I think it's a tougher spot than it appears on the surface, which is why I posted it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Of course no-one is smooth calling here, it's clearly push/fold... but which is it? Any logic/reasoning welcome, really interested in what people think about this.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It would be difficult but i would fold there is too much action behind you.

However to win a tournament you have to gamble and win races and given your chip stack vs the blind schedule now might be a good time to move. If you don't fold go all in and to try to keep the field thin - if he has a small pair you are in a race heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed, I think it's a tougher spot than it appears on the surface, which is why I posted it. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Of course no-one is smooth calling here, it's clearly push/fold... but which is it? Any logic/reasoning welcome, really interested in what people think about this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your M is 4 and you've got the 2nd best Ace suited against a rock. I'm shoveling here hoping to be heads up. You have to do this when you have some fold equity and a double push will cause the bigger stack to lay down AK and anything under 10s. Here's your chance to pull a nice stack and thin the field or drop to an M of 1. Either way you don't have much time so in they go (if it's me)

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Fold.

If he's noticeably tight and pushing in that particular position, your chip ev is barely positive at best, if everyone else folds. Since there are people left to act, it pushes this over the edge.

Given these stacks I'd be looking for chances to gain chips and run the table over (those blinds are absurd!), but this isn't a good one.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Interesting mix of opinions so far. I will say that I have actually spoken to Villian since the hand and so know more or less what his actual range is for pushing here, but I'll keep that to myself for now.

Any other thoughts for/against the push?

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If he's noticeably tight and pushing in that particular position,

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't the fact that he's under immediate pressure from the blinds open up his range somewhat? I would be more inclined to fold if I was on the button and he was the CO, where I know he is happy to give up a whole orbit of possible hands to play what he has now... As it stands, he's going to lose almost half his stack to the blinds in the next 2 hands... Does this factor?

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

You have ~5BB, play to win I am pushing this against even the tightest of rocks.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

Wait he's shoving 3.5BBS and you only have 5.6BBs? Am I reading that correctly?

The structure is outrageous, and he's a rock, but we're super short and we're not on the bubble yet. If both of you were deeper the question is a bit different, but you're not. I contest the idea that this is a "bad spot" to pick up chips, his tightness is almost inconsequential with current chip stacks and it is eight handed.

Shove and hope for the best.

Re: Can you/SHOULD YOU fold it?
 

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.300% 59.66% 00.64% 245157384 2645394.00 { 66+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.700% 39.06% 00.64% 160504788 2645394.00 { AQs }

You are ev neutral at best.

Folding and open shoving the next hand has a greater expected value than calling here.

This is a rediculous spot but it is a fold with your read.

Obviously this is an instainstainstacall against any other opponent