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#11
03-21-2007, 03:47 PM
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Re: How do you proceed here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] only because a super quick scan is telling me you don't have 4 outs, you have 3 or less. And judging the action, it's maybe 2 for a split pot. Anyone else find an answer other then fold ? [/ QUOTE ] imo you have > 4. it would not shock me if we could win with a queen. [/ QUOTE ] I think that's incorrect. I think you can't ever count the Q as an out here, and you'd be wrong counting the Jh as well. Using such optimistic out calculations is going to get you into trouble. [/ QUOTE ] wow how can the queens and the Jh both be dead here. SB can have any K, two pair, whatever. BB can have AA, AK, TT, JJ. 
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#12
03-21-2007, 03:56 PM
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Re: How do you proceed here?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] only because a super quick scan is telling me you don't have 4 outs, you have 3 or less. And judging the action, it's maybe 2 for a split pot. Anyone else find an answer other then fold ? [/ QUOTE ] imo you have > 4. it would not shock me if we could win with a queen. [/ QUOTE ] I think that's incorrect. I think you can't ever count the Q as an out here, and you'd be wrong counting the Jh as well. Using such optimistic out calculations is going to get you into trouble. [/ QUOTE ] wow how can the queens and the Jh both be dead here. SB can have any K, two pair, whatever. BB can have AA, AK, TT, JJ. [/ QUOTE ] Dude there are TWO people in the hand. Hero bet, sb check raises, bb reraises, and action is on you. 1) you don't close the action 2) Hand ranges here for 2 villains includes WAY more then what you've listed. Their combined hands can easily have you drawing to a split pot, while still way behind. This is such an easy fold. There's nothing to think about. You're going to probably be in a capped pot on every street going for what, a gutshot to a split pot ? boooooooooo
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#13
03-21-2007, 03:57 PM
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Re: How do you proceed here?
"2) Hand ranges here for 2 villains includes WAY more then what you've listed. Their combined hands can easily have you drawing to a split pot, while still way behind. "
obviously. I was refuting this: "I think you can't ever count the Q as an out here, and you'd be wrong counting the Jh as well."
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#14
03-21-2007, 04:03 PM
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Re: How do you proceed here?
[ QUOTE ]
"2) Hand ranges here for 2 villains includes WAY more then what you've listed. Their combined hands can easily have you drawing to a split pot, while still way behind. " obviously. I was refuting this: "I think you can't ever count the Q as an out here, and you'd be wrong counting the Jh as well." [/ QUOTE ] With a combined 2 players willing to check raise here, do you feel that you have 6 clean outs ? The answer is categorically no. Assuming your J is drawing you to a split pot, and assuming I humor you with no flush draw, and you have: Q, Q, J, J J as your draw, you've got no business calling what essentially equates to a gutshot so that you can win a split pot in a situation where you'll never close the action. Ok so you call, they cap. You miss. Now what ? You're invested to calling 4 more big bets on the turn for a split pot ? fold. it's not even close.
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#15
03-21-2007, 04:17 PM
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Re: How do you proceed here?
What makes you so sure this is going to be a split pot if the Jack hits? Remember, I hold two of the Queens and based upon how the preflop action as well as the post flop action has gone it seems actually unlikely that either of my opponents holds a Queen. My biggest fear hear would be that I am up against a set, hit the Jack on the turn and have the board pair on the river.
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#16
03-21-2007, 04:20 PM
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Re: How do you proceed here?
[ QUOTE ]
What makes you so sure this is going to be a split pot if the Jack hits? Remember, I hold two of the Queens and based upon how the preflop action as well as the post flop action has gone it seems actually unlikely that either of my opponents holds a Queen. My biggest fear hear would be that I am up against a set, hit the Jack on the turn and have the board pair on the river. [/ QUOTE ] as stated, drawing to capped gutshots where you don't close the action is losing poker. carry on. Sometimes it's ok to look at a nice hand like QQ and say "well that sucks". You don't always have to win.
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#18
03-21-2007, 04:31 PM
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Re: How do you proceed here?
[ QUOTE ]
oh yeah - you should definitely check behind on the flop. [/ QUOTE ] Well I certainly haven't been arguing about if it's correct or not to take a free card !!! With the action presented here, raise, reraise, it's an easy fold. Yes a free card is exactly what I'd take here.
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#19
03-21-2007, 04:50 PM
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Re: How do you proceed here?
It is not certain that the SB will cap the flop. His check-raise indicates he probably was trying to protect a hand that is not necessarily a monster. Since the BB has shown much aggression preflop and on the flop it is not a slamdunk that SB will cap. Also, I don't necessarily put either of my opponents on flush draws once again based upon how the hand has materialized up to this point, therefore, if I were to call and then a heart came on the turn it is possible they may fear the flush is out there and check giving me a free turn.
Just playing Devils Advocate.
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#20
03-21-2007, 06:36 PM
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Re: How do you proceed here?
IMO, this a very easy fold. High possibility of this being capped, and you're not closing the action. High enough probability of drawing to a chop and that some of your outs are not available. Also, you have no redraws even if you get there on the turn. Lastly, your "outs" on the turn give others redraws.
Oh, and def check the flop.
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