Another Satellite bubble question

[Dazza1984]

call

[WarDekar]

I'm not sure how you can ever pass up an opportunity like this to eliminate the other shorty, especially given that as was said the big stacks aren't exactly safe by calling either of you.

[Sherman]

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especially given that as was said the big stacks aren't exactly safe by calling either of you.

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To me this is a greater reason to fold than to call.

[Eagles]

Instacall

edit:
I'll explain a bit because the shorties pushes it's an instacall if he picks up the blinds you lose equity because you need to outlast him. Since he's short if you win you guarantee a seat.

[WarDekar]

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especially given that as was said the big stacks aren't exactly safe by calling either of you.

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To me this is a greater reason to fold than to call.

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What I meant was you need the other shorty to go out, correct? If the other stacks aren't going to be willing to make a call against him, and given no other reads that we're stealing more often than other shorty to make up for that fact, then you HAVE to take this opportunity to eliminate him with the 2nd best starting hand.

I mean, what else are you going to do?

And as Eagles said, you can't give him the blinds here as then you become shorty.

Someone has to go out, this is by far the best opportunity you're going to have to do that.

[Sherman]

Alright fine. I don't have any software with me to run the analysis, but it basically comes down to this...if somone wants to do it.

Run KK against villains pushing range here (which I think we all agree is pretty wide).

Compare that probability to the probability of THAY3R getting a seat if he folds and continues to play. This second probability is clearly an estimation and I think only THAY3R can give us the best estimate. May the best probability win.

As a prediction, I think calling is correct...but not by nearly as much as people think it is.

[thegreatchris]

Call, even with a skill advantage I think it's tough to pass up an 80/20 or 70/30 spot. I'm not sure I can call here with QQ, could anyone else?

[La Brujita]

i think its instacall against other shorty

[Sherman]

Guys, given the stack sizes, THAY3R's skill, the skill of other players, and the fact that 3/4 of the players left get a seat...I can't see THAY3R being much less than 70% to get a seat if he folds.

He might even be closer to 75% (even odds). Is KK better than 70-75% against villain's rasing range...I don't have the damn software with me. Someone run some ranges and this problem is easily solved.

Sherman

[La Brujita]

i thought he was really good until i saw him hu vs shaundeeb.

zing!