Moving the lines by "hot" cappers "free" posts, beware

[sirio11]

I have some comments for your response, don't agree with some of the points, don't have the time right now to comment. Probably in the morning.

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All comes back to the simple maxim that free picks are worth 100% of what you're paying for them.

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Even if for you this is a maxim, this is completely irrelevant to this discussion. All poker advise in 2+2 is free, Are you suggesting nobody should discuss, criticize posts or poker ideas in the post because they are free?

[RivaLiva]

I think this famous capper can only do it a few times before the people on the forum don't listen to him anymore because of bad advice. He will quickly lose his "hot" reputation most likely and then his WINNAAAAR posts won't work.

[Performify]

Sirio,

Definitely await a full response.

In the meantime: I'm not saying that discussing poker on 2+2 is worthless. Far from it...

I'm also not saying free picks are worthless either. I post my picks, I follow others picks. I've made money following others picks. I know people have made money following my MMA picks and my NFL game of the week for the last couple years.

But would I stake my life on a free pick someone posted on 2+2 or LVA or etc? Definitely not.

I guess to use an analogy to the poker side - you come to 2+2 and post a hand. You get pretty unanimous advice that you should play the hand "like this". Does that mean the next time you get that hand, you should play "like this"? Does it mean that "like this" is right, or that blindly following it without understanding whats going on underneath (why you should play it "like this") is even good advice?

No, the real value of 2+2 isn't posting a hand and getting advice on how to play it - its understanding WHY to play it that way and WHEN, not just what to play in this exact situation.

I think back to when Shania was first brought up here, for example, where you had people starting to blindly follow Gigabet/others playing style without understanding fundamentally why he was making those moves. A lot of otherwise smart players started bleeding away EV until they understood the WHY and not just the what...

Free picks are ultimately like someone posting how to play a specific poker hand. Can following that specific advice for a specific situation make you money? sure. Is it as +EV as understanding the fundamentals of WHY the move is a good move? Definitely not...

[trixtrix]

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I have some comments for your response, don't agree with some of the points, don't have the time right now to comment. Probably in the morning.

[ QUOTE ]
All comes back to the simple maxim that free picks are worth 100% of what you're paying for them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if for you this is a maxim, this is completely irrelevant to this discussion. All poker advise in 2+2 is free, Are you suggesting nobody should discuss, criticize posts or poker ideas in the post because they are free?

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no it just means it has zero expected value, a free pick is the same as flipping a coin. so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not.

using a zero arbitrage argument, you get out what you put in. therefore, being that you have paid NOTHING for the pick, you can not expect to receive any value from them, hence it really doesn't matter if it's a right/wrong pick from a hot/cold/ugly capper in the first place.

[sirio11]

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no it just means it has zero expected value, a free pick is the same as flipping a coin. so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not.

using a zero arbitrage argument, you get out what you put in. therefore, being that you have paid NOTHING for the pick, you can not expect to receive any value from them, hence it really doesn't matter if it's a right/wrong pick from a hot/cold/ugly capper in the first place.

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huh??

I'm lost, I don't even understand your zealot in following such very borderline argument in this discussion.

I don't even know where it was proposed we should expect more from a free pick.

Man, you should live in a world where every decision you do has to have a monetary value in order to do it.

My posting this thread has nothing to do with me expecting some $$value, or with me being mad because I didn't get some $$ value by reading hot posters. I mean wth you got that [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I mean you could just answer, (even i think it was already answered),

"so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not"


which is relevant, but instead you choose to "explain" (critizice)??? why the "free" part is so relevant.

The argument I gave applies also to pay services. Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

To some other poster who may chime in with this (or some other) irrelevant points IMHO:

The only reason for this post was to warn newbies about following hot capppers. It would have been nice to read something about this and about some other potential problems when I started. That's my only aim.

[sirio11]

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Sirio,

Definitely await a full response.


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Lol, now I'm busy handicapping games [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

I just wanted to present you some Math, where it's fairly possible for a capper to do this a high % of the time and still have a pretty good record, such that he's guaranteed to have followers and reputation for a long time.

And this is assuming the "hot" poster in the long run will post a >50% winners, most problably the HOT posters are just random dudes who will have hot streaks, and obviously the public-followers should lose the more they follow, since in the "beggining" of the streak (real or manufactured), most probably they were not following.
Oh, and these scammers can continue having followers also, they are just very, very vocal when they are hot, and they are awful quiet when they're cold, usually with no way to track their records, so it will be pretty hard for the usual observer to distinguish between all the hype, this is until he lose some good money of course.

[Performify]

Sirio,

you're absolutely right on all points that people should strongly beware blindly following others picks, and you're definitely right that a winning capper would in theory have plenty of room to throw a game every now and again and still be a winner.

Overall the most important thing to look from anyone who you're getting picks from is their record. Anyone who doesn't have a very clearly visible record. Its why one of the main things we try to enforce here is that anyone posting picks needs to visibly and accurately and clearly track their record.

And its why anyonne - touts or picks services or just those posting here that don't clearly and accurately post and track their records are generally someone to be regarded as caveat emptor ...

[trixtrix]

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no it just means it has zero expected value, a free pick is the same as flipping a coin. so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not.

using a zero arbitrage argument, you get out what you put in. therefore, being that you have paid NOTHING for the pick, you can not expect to receive any value from them, hence it really doesn't matter if it's a right/wrong pick from a hot/cold/ugly capper in the first place.

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huh??

I'm lost, I don't even understand your zealot in following such very borderline argument in this discussion.

I don't even know where it was proposed we should expect more from a free pick.

Man, you should live in a world where every decision you do has to have a monetary value in order to do it.

My posting this thread has nothing to do with me expecting some $$value, or with me being mad because I didn't get some $$ value by reading hot posters. I mean wth you got that [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I mean you could just answer, (even i think it was already answered),

"so you should place efforts on your own handicapping instead of blindly following free picks then wondering if it's a false positive or not"


which is relevant, but instead you choose to "explain" (critizice)??? why the "free" part is so relevant.

The argument I gave applies also to pay services. Do you see why? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

To some other poster who may chime in with this (or some other) irrelevant points IMHO:

The only reason for this post was to warn newbies about following hot capppers. It would have been nice to read something about this and about some other potential problems when I started. That's my only aim.

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okay i'm lost, first part of your argument seems to indicate that you're teaching us "newbs" a lesson in your posts. yet you phrased your initial post as a question, so are you seriously asking a question or are you so attention-starved that you feel the need to dress up your "lesson" as a question in order to have more responses?

second of all, you indicated you're showing us some "maths" to open our "newbie" eyes. where/when was this done? are you referring to childish replication/explanation of roi, which i have already done at a much more accurate level previously? no seriously enlighten us commoners, where are these eye-opening heart-stopping mathematical conjectures that leave us breathless?

in fact, i would say the only reasonable maths displayed in this thread are from posters responding to your posts. so really.. who's newbie here? you put together some haphazard calculation of roi and use some window-dressing to teach us a principle that anyone reasonably seasoned in sportsbetting could've logically induced in the first place? wow, colour me impressed..

btw, you stated in your op that comments are welcome, so i can only assume you want to hear my comments. next time you don't want anyone going off on a tangent (which did not happen in my place, if you were actually sophisticated enough to understand my explanation), put this disclaimer on the bottom of your post "no posting pls, admirations only!"

[Thremp]

trix,

Don't tap the glass.

[sirio11]

Jesus man, I just don't get all the hate.

Don't give me the bs I'm teaching you "newbies" a lesson, please ... you are no fing newbie. In any case I am the one new to sports betting.
You have it backwards brother, the one who got mad it's you because I dared criticize your post and I guess I'm not allowed to criticize any of the self-called big "sharps" over here.

I'm welcome to comments about the OP, and any argument about why the situation it's not as I said. But your only argument was, "It's not a big deal because they are free", sorry if I'm used to criticize stupid arguments.

And about the Math part, where the hell did I say I have a sophisticated argument using Dirichlet convolution and complex variable to explain the principle about why there are many scumbags in sports betting?

Man, I just don't get it, why in the world a post like mine is bad for a newbie to read?

I started doing this short time ago, I did my homework, and tried to read as much as possible about this business, I read the FAQ (and a million other things and forums) and I didn't find anything about following other people picks, and I made the mistake of being naive about that particular issue, so I'm trying to help others to avoid that mistake. What the f you don't get about that?
Sorry if there's already a list of "big sharps" who are the only allowed to give "lessons".

I enjoyed your thread (posted by Performify) about being a sharp; but I really don't get your hate in this thread, really man, wtf [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]