(109) Bubble two pair with short stack about to post - Page 2

bigt439 · #11 06-19-2006, 05:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would try for more chips here. Yeah, the pot is decent now, but you've got a great chance to get more chips from the big stack. Why not just call? The only real danger is giving diamonds a peek.

[/ QUOTE ]
Push you don't want a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

ryanghall · #12 06-19-2006, 06:07 PM

Yeah I'd push as well.

Ryan

pineapple888 · #13 06-19-2006, 06:15 PM

[ QUOTE ]
PartyPoker $109 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t264)
Button (t1323)
SB (t12886)
Hero (t5527)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
CO folds, Button folds, SB (Thinks forever) calls t300, Hero checks

Flop: (t1200) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t800, Hero??

Last hand he made a big call with AT for all but T200 of his chips on a board of AK8r. So he doesn't seem afraid to gamble with a micro stack about to post.
Preflop I nearly typed in the chat for him to push any two.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really aren't all that far ahead here if he has any kind of hand.

71% vs. ANY 7 or ANY overpair
60% vs. 66
75% vs. 44
Crushed by a set or higher two pair, of course.

Call and await developments. If he steals it from me later, that's life. Given the stack situation, where you can pretty much fold into second, there's absolutely no way I go broke on this flop.

pineapple888 · #14 06-19-2006, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
you will never stand up to a big stack on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you really can't go very far wrong with this approach when you are the second stack and there are two shorties, and why is everyone getting so excited over bottom 2 pair?

bigt439 · #15 06-19-2006, 06:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will never stand up to a big stack on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you really can't go very far wrong with this approach when you are the second stack and there are two shorties, and why is everyone getting so excited over bottom 2 pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pineapple, it's because we have the best hand and lots of FE.

ryanghall · #16 06-19-2006, 06:25 PM

2 pair is a good hand. There's a very good chance Villain will fold. If he calls, you're very likely ahead.

Calling, also, will likely not tell you much about your hand. What if Kh comes off on turn and villain pots it? Are you going to fold?

Ryan

adanthar · #17 06-19-2006, 06:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will never stand up to a big stack on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you really can't go very far wrong with this approach when you are the second stack and there are two shorties, and why is everyone getting so excited over bottom 2 pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pineapple, it's because we have the best hand and lots of FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are called, you essentially have something like AQ against a random hand.

Hint: You don't want to have AQ against a random hand.

Wait for a turn where your equity will drastically change (hint #2: diamonds are probably not scary at all).

EscapePlan9 · #18 06-19-2006, 06:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PartyPoker $109 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t264)
Button (t1323)
SB (t12886)
Hero (t5527)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
CO folds, Button folds, SB (Thinks forever) calls t300, Hero checks

Flop: (t1200) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets t800, Hero??

Last hand he made a big call with AT for all but T200 of his chips on a board of AK8r. So he doesn't seem afraid to gamble with a micro stack about to post.
Preflop I nearly typed in the chat for him to push any two.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really aren't all that far ahead here if he has any kind of hand.

71% vs. ANY 7 or ANY overpair
60% vs. 66
75% vs. 44
Crushed by a set or higher two pair, of course.

Call and await developments. If he steals it from me later, that's life. Given the stack situation, where you can pretty much fold into second, there's absolutely no way I go broke on this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Against those ranges... we win roughly 70% of the time. Also, there's no reason that he HAS to call with any of those hands here. And there's no reason to believe that he must have hit this flop. I push here 150% of the time.

TruFloridaGator · #19 06-19-2006, 07:09 PM

Woah, woah guys. You are drastically over thinking this. He has led out after limping. He could have ANYTHING. He could have a hand we are ahead of or he could have complete air. Please instapush.

If he would have c/r us then this could definately be a fold and a different story.

bigt439 · #20 06-19-2006, 07:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you will never stand up to a big stack on the bubble.

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, you really can't go very far wrong with this approach when you are the second stack and there are two shorties, and why is everyone getting so excited over bottom 2 pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pineapple, it's because we have the best hand and lots of FE.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you are called, you essentially have something like AQ against a random hand.

Hint: You don't want to have AQ against a random hand.

Wait for a turn where your equity will drastically change (hint #2: diamonds are probably not scary at all).

[/ QUOTE ]

While I often agree that waiting for the turn is a good play, with such a vulnerable hand and moderate show of strength, you will have very little idea where you stand on a lot of turn cards. If you want to fold you'll give yourself a good chance to do it with the best hand, and if you want to trap money I would argue that you're taking to big a risk to do so.

Also, while diamonds may not be scary in terms of giving your opponent the best hand they will often give him a good deal of equity when there's a good chance he gets allin.