AA 20 BB pot - Page 2

gaming_mouse · #11 05-01-2006, 08:11 PM

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I mean you really think KK or worse decides to raise the river AFTER the flush came in AND the decided not to raise the turn.

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Yes, I do think it's possible. Bad LAGs love to raise the river on scare cards, and that river card is a scare card. I really don't see why you think a bluff raise is so unlikely here. This is not the place for a bet/fold, IMO, and I'm a fan of the bet/fold.

ggbman · #12 05-01-2006, 10:00 PM

Because on with KK is going to think, "Even though i went psycho preflop, and this guy is clearly in love with his hand, i can raise and get AA to fold!" It's just not happening, especially because he wants to showdown, not try and bluff AA, especially when the pot is 3 handed, and the flush draw just came in.

gaming_mouse · #13 05-01-2006, 11:28 PM

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Because on with KK is going to think, "Even though i went psycho preflop, and this guy is clearly in love with his hand, i can raise and get AA to fold!" It's just not happening, especially because he wants to showdown, not try and bluff AA, especially when the pot is 3 handed, and the flush draw just came in.

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Someone tried a bluff similar to this w/ me in a hand last night. It does happen. I'll try to find the HH.

gaming_mouse · #14 05-01-2006, 11:37 PM

Ok here it is.... pot not as huge but should give you a sense of why i dont think this is impossible.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (9.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB calls, UTG raises, Hero calls, SB folds.

Final Pot: 14.50 BB

Results in white below: 
UTG has 7c Qh (three of a kind, eights).
Hero has 7d 7s (full house, eights full of sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 14.50 BB.

Magikist · #15 05-01-2006, 11:52 PM

Gaming,

While your argument may be valid, this hand is in no way analogous to the original poster's hand. Yes, it's an example of a desperation bluff, but that's where the similarities cease.

The problem with the original poster's hand is that incidents of 1) opponents' complete insanity and 2) folding winners in big pots are burned indellibly in our memories.

Looking at this hand as objectively as possible, in a complete vacuum, and completely removed from the action, I agree with ggbman that this is a clear bet-fold because there's no way there's a 5% chance you're winning this hand.

However, in the heat of battle, and exclusively for psychologically reasons, I'm not sure I'd be able to fold the river. Understanding the limitations of my own play, folding the winner there would have very subtle but very real negative repercussions on my immediate future results at that table. I'd warrant it would have a similar impact on many other players. If peace of mind is worth the BB investment, than the call cannot be all that bad.

ggbman · #16 05-02-2006, 12:19 AM

Gaming,

I'm really not trying to be a dick, but those hand are completely different and you know it. In the OP's hand, the flop was capped 3 ways! It is clear that the OP has a very big pair, almost definitly AA or KK, and there is very likely also a another big pair out there flop the preflop/flop action. MP went nuts on the flop, but was passive preflop. He had the chance to raise 2 people on the turn and didn't, so there was no way he had AA beat on the turn. NONE.

Now UTG has been playing like a big overpair the whole time, but it's prtty obvious what Hero has, and he obviously wants to showdown as cheaply as possible. When that river cards hits, we almost definitly have UTG beat, and we have no idea about MP. The pot is huge, and anything decent will pay off, so it is a must bet. UTG won't be raising this river because as we know, he has QQ/KK or something of the like and wants to see showdown. He is not going to all of a sudden rep. a flush to get AA to fold. He just isn't. And if MP raises this river, it's NEVER a bluff, and given that he didn't raise the turn, he has improved to a flush, trips, or something of the like. He always has Aces up beat. It's really that simple IMO. You don't have to agree, but i have explained my reasoning pretty thouroughly, and likely won't have my mind changed here. I mean, you guys are free to do what you want, i'm just saying i think this situation is more straightforward than you guys are making it.

gaming_mouse · #17 05-02-2006, 12:33 AM

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Gaming,

I'm really not trying to be a dick, but those hand are completely different and you know it. In the OP's hand, the flop was capped 3 ways! It is clear that the OP has a very big pair, almost definitly AA or KK, and there is very likely also a another big pair out there flop the preflop/flop action. MP went nuts on the flop, but was passive preflop. He had the chance to raise 2 people on the turn and didn't, so there was no way he had AA beat on the turn. NONE.

Now UTG has been playing like a big overpair the whole time, but it's prtty obvious what Hero has, and he obviously wants to showdown as cheaply as possible. When that river cards hits, we almost definitly have UTG beat, and we have no idea about MP. The pot is huge, and anything decent will pay off, so it is a must bet. UTG won't be raising this river because as we know, he has QQ/KK or something of the like and wants to see showdown. He is not going to all of a sudden rep. a flush to get AA to fold. He just isn't. And if MP raises this river, it's NEVER a bluff, and given that he didn't raise the turn, he has improved to a flush, trips, or something of the like. He always has Aces up beat. It's really that simple IMO. You don't have to agree, but i have explained my reasoning pretty thouroughly, and likely won't have my mind changed here. I mean, you guys are free to do what you want, i'm just saying i think this situation is more straightforward than you guys are making it.

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Thanks for explaining.

I do see why you like a bet. I just really don't like folding here... I just don't think a bluff is THAT impossible. But you are right, this hand is diff from mine, and you may be right that a bluff raise is super rare here, too. I just have my doubts.... but we can just agree to disagree on that.

Thanks,
gm

Bond18 · #18 05-02-2006, 01:26 AM

I will say this after playing about 25k hands on pacific 10/20, i no longer beleive any play; no matter how stupid or mind boggling or make you think your possibly playing verse an actual literal monkey, as if koko that one who knows sign language got ahold of the computer, actually is, NOTHING is impossible.

In the actual hand i called and UTG called. UTG mucked and MP showed 99.