Sustaining a 31BB/100 Winrate at NL - I'm Doing It

[ama0330]

WHERE DO I SEND THE MONEY

[Gonso]

WE'RE READY TO BELIEVE YOU


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[PartyScout]

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I figured out a system of play, after playing 3 million hands of poker and creating about 6 different strategy systems, that yields about 30BB/100 as a winrate at the low stakes levels (25c/50c - $1/2) NL.

Obviously I ain't spilling the beans on this, but I wonder if anyone else (who likely is also not willing to share their secret strategy), is able to sustain a winrate this high.

This is on a sample of 13400 hands, but I am an expert at this game and have played all stakes and varieties to the tune of millions of hands, and I know variance and I can honestly foresee a winrate of at least 16BB/100 sustaining to the 50K hand mark.

Can anyone top this?

Evan Evans

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Over what 15k in hands?This just is a good run mate.Your BB/100 will drop.Example i played 200nl today 91 hands 900 profit crazy BB/100.A few sessions like this in short hand peroids sustains crazy win rates but over say 60-100k hands you should take a look at the whole picture

[Evan Evans]

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My IQ is above 150

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For a 150+ iq your spelling is pretty poor. Which makes me think youre not telling the truth about a lot of things

[/ QUOTE ]Actually, once you hit this high of an IQ you realize that people's petty observations about spelling are trivial in comparison to our place in the Multiverse. So I don't waste my time satiating lesser evolved person's desires, when I can do much more for the human race with my time. It's usually the "almost smart" people who try to correct people all the time.

Evan Evans

[Big_Jim]

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LMAO 99%? Being a bit unreasonable here?

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LMAO, don't know [censored] about statistics, here?

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Not sure if anyone pointed this out yet (Big Jim’s Objection), but I will give it a crack.
99% confidence level is actually a very big spread think -10,10 (in whatever units you want). That the reason its 99% b/c you can be 99% sure it lies in that spread. What you want is a single point (not sure if its expressed as 0% confidence or as something else).

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Yes, a 99% interval WILL have a large spread, but it will also give us a clearer picture about just how much different his TRUE winrate could be. 95% would probably be plenty adequate, though.

However, there is NO WAY to get a "point" answer, as that is not what confidence intervals do. However, the more hands he plays, the lower the standard error will be, and thus, the more accurate results we can get.

Since we only have a small sample, and since getting a census of all possible data is impossible, the best we can do is get an estimate.

Regardless, the quote above about it being "a bit unreasonable" to ask for a 99% confidence interval still represents a clear lack of understanding about statistics, and confidence intervals, in particular.

[Big_Jim]

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This is on a sample of 13400 hands, but I am an expert at this game and have played all stakes and varieties to the tune of millions of hands, and I know variance and I can honestly foresee a winrate of at least 16BB/100 sustaining to the 50K hand mark.

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Calculate a 99% confidence interval for the winrate. k tnx

[/ QUOTE ]Tell me how I do that with PT and I will. k tnx

Evan Evans

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Don't think you can calculate it with PT, but PT does give you all the info you need.

You need:
a) Winrate over the sample (x)
b) Number of hands (n)
c) Standard Deviation (found on the "More Info" window) (s)

You can then calculate it as follows:

For a 95% Confidence Interval:
x <u>+</u> 1.96 * s/sqrt(n)

For a 99% Confidence Interval:
x <u>+</u> 2.5758 * s/sqrt(n)

Standard Deviations tend to be pretty large, so expect the ranges to be large, as well.

[The Bride]

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btw, I am talking 30bb/100 not 30BB/100. in NL a winrate is in terms of the big blind which is the same as the big bet, since there is no big bet.


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So he's talking about 15 PTBB/100. Is that really that unbelievable at microlimits? I have no idea; I've never played those games. But if they were ridiculously easy, this doesn't seem that insane.

[ursine cotcher]

The degrees of levelling going on here are mindboggling.

[FoldEqu1ty]

Jesus Christ I'm LOLLING my ass off. Look at these personal quotes from his IMDB Bio:

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Personal quotes

"An epiphany can be as deadly as it is awakening."

"I have to stay out of the limelight as it tends to make me look green."

"Always listen to a hypocrite."

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Well there you go, folks, listen to the man.

[FoldEqu1ty]

To be fair from the Bio this guy seems kinda smart.