Reasonable play? Or Ridiculous?

[Phil153]

If he has A23 + flush draw you should be calling!!!

Also, I could easily imagine a TAG plaing an AA/KK + flush draw or A2 + pair like this too. At least often enough to offset the straight or low+set.

[jcx]

Thanks for the responses. Gave me a lot to ponder. In retrospect folding the turn seems to be -EV, which is all I'm really concerned about longterm. When presented with a similar scenario in the future I'll give serious consideration to repotting it preflop. That would have made the math in this situation a no brainer. Thanks again.

[booger]

I don't call preflop with AAJ6 especially with unsuited aces. Maybe I play too tight but it seems incredibly hard to scoop. I don't care for the flop either , two pair with no low draw on that board is crap imo. you are up against a straight and flush draw and no low draw except for runner runner live ace. To answer your question of "where did I screw up?" I would say calling preflop and it's downhill from there. just my opinion...booger

[donger]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't call preflop with AAJ6 especially with unsuited aces. Maybe I play too tight but it seems incredibly hard to scoop. I don't care for the flop either , two pair with no low draw on that board is crap imo. you are up against a straight and flush draw and no low draw except for runner runner live ace. To answer your question of "where did I screw up?" I would say calling preflop and it's downhill from there. just my opinion...booger

[/ QUOTE ]

[Ergodicity]

[ QUOTE ]
Never fold this turn. Ever.
You're really not in trouble against anything except A25 or A2 + set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope. Try again.

-Ergodicity will get you in the end

[Ergodicity]

You make a pretty big error in analysis here, Phil.

For starters, having 56% chance to win is only in aggregate for all weighted hands. He only needs to have a set or straight a very small % of the time to have you [censored], since when you have odds you generally barely have odds, but when you don't you are completely hosed.

Looks like Ergodicity may be visiting you sooner than most, my friend,

[Spladle]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know PLO well, but if you're raising $60 (1/3 of effective stacks) with the plan to check/fold 20+ turn cards if called, there is something wrong with the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Phil153]

Ergo, no.

He needs to win half of the pot 56% of the time on the river to show a profit. Against a bare A2 he has >90% chance of winning the river. Against A2+ flush draw, he has >75% chance of winning the river. In addition, he has 3 counterfeit outs for a 3/4 in some cases.

The concepts above have obviously confused you, so we'll look at it the normal way, in terms of whole pot equity.

There is $294 in the pot, Hero has to call $114. Therefore he needs a minimum of 114/(114+294) = 28% equity.

Let's have a look how he stacks up against villain's possible holdings. Losing situations are in red, winning in green:

Absolute worst case scenario, a straight:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="red">0.050</font>
As 5c 3d 2d 0.950

Second worst: A set + nut low:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="red">0.081</font>
As 4s 4c 2h 0.919

More realistic: A2 + bottom two pair

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.419</font>
As 4c 3d 2h 0.581

A2 + a pair + a flush draw:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.331</font>
As Kd 3d 2h 0.669


Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.369</font>
As Kc Kd 2d 0.631

A2 + top and bottom pair + flush draw

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.356</font>
As Jd 3d 2h 0.644

Without the flush draw:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.444</font>
As 3s Jd 2h 0.556

AA with a diamond draw and weak low:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.550</font>
As Kd 8d Ah 0.450

AA with a diamond draw and busted low:

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.613</font>
As Kd 3d Ah 0.388

A straight draw + flush draw + low draw + 2 pair (non A2)

Js 6s Ac Ad <font color="green">0.306</font>
As 4s 5d 3d 0.694

Here's what we know about the other guy:

1. He's a tag and he's on the button. His pot raising range is quite wide but is still mostly decent hands.
2. He pot bet the flop but just called the check raise with position
3. He pushed the turn when checked to.
4. We saw the flop HEADS UP. This is very important in assigning a hand range!!

The most logical hands given this action are some kind of low draw with maybe a high/high draw. A TAG with a wrap low draw would push this flop imo. I find it hard to believe a low draw + set wouldn't push this flop also.

So, what do you think his hand range is? I challenge you to assign a % to each of the above scenarios. In my humble opinion he could very easily have any of the above hands, and we have quite profitable equity against most of them.

Ergo, we should call, and it's not close.