USC/Texas opinions

[vilemerchant]

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[Performify]

This is a pretty decent read from ESPN: "Twenty reasons Texas/USC wins"
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowls0...ory?id=2267500

Several intelligent things buried in among several completely stupid reasons:

Here are the serious highlights:

USC:

16. The Trojans' 34-game winning streak is rooted in the players' ability to focus and their refusal to look beyond the next game, or even the next snap. What others might consider as goals -- a Heisman, a third consecutive national championship, a 34-game winning streak -- are ignored. Carroll constantly preaches to his players that they give everything they have on every play. It sounds simple. The best ideas usually are.

14. USC's success on offense has everything to do with its versatility. Defenses react to personnel changes. The Trojans don't have to make those changes, Texas defensive coordinator Gene Chizik said. "They give you empty [no running backs in the backfield] sets [with] two backs and one tight end, when you think it's a pro set. They give you the illusion that it will be smashmouth and yet it will be five wides."

13. The number of games over .500 that USC is in the Rose Bowl. The Trojans are 21-8 in the Granddaddy of Them All, and nine of their 11 national championships have been sealed with a season-ending victory in Pasadena, Calif. Not that USC is the home team or anything like that. Of course, it's a neutral field.

12. Speaking of which, USC has been Here before. Not "Here" as in the Rose Bowl, but "Here" as in playing for the national championship. Yes, Texas is a veteran team and won the Rose Bowl just last season. But the experience of the Orange Bowl last season, and the Rose Bowl the year before, must count for something. USC won't let its butterflies flutter away with its game plan.

11. NFL scouts haven't fallen in love with Matt Leinart's arm, but they're nuts if they don't swoon over his win-loss record. Leinart is 37-1, second-best in NCAA history. Leinart goes into the final game of his Trojan career with 10,328 passing yards, 98 touchdown passes and only 22 interceptions.

10. USC kicker Mario Danelo was 10-of-10 on field goals inside of 40 yards, and 0-for-1 outside. That means two things. One, Pete Carroll isn't scared of going for it on fourth-and-short (see No. 4), and two, it's remarkable how the Trojans manage to do the fundamentals well. How many national championships might Bobby Bowden have won if he had a guy who could kick accurately, even with limited range? Danelo also went 78-for-81 on extra points, setting an NCAA record for PATs.

8. Turnovers are at the top of Pete Carroll's list of Things to Do. The Trojans finished the regular season leading the nation at plus-22. I smell a trend: the 2003 Trojans finished at plus-20, and last year's USC team finished at plus-19. What's more, Texas comes into the Rose Bowl at plus-6. Turnovers look like a big advantage for USC. With the injuries and inexperience on the USC defense this season, creating turnovers has never been more important.

7.5: The yards per offensive play that the Trojans averaged this season. Army set the NCAA record of 7.9 per play in 1945 against wartime competition. USC isn't far behind, and against full-strength competition. The Trojans won't catch Army -- not without a 1,000-yard game -- but the sheer production of USC over the course of the season is stunning in scope.

6. This will be the sixth time in school history that USC has gone into a bowl game with an undefeated record. The Trojans' record in those five previous games (four of them the Rose Bowl): 5-0. That includes last season, of course. Historically and currently, USC knows how to finish.

4th Down. USC doesn't have many of them, and when they do, good things happen. The Trojans punted only 31 times this season, the fewest in the nation. On the 27 fourth downs that they went for it, the Trojans converted 17.

3rd Quarter. Four times this season, the Trojans trailed at halftime. In those third quarters, USC outscored Oregon, Arizona State, Notre Dame and Fresno State by a combined 70-7. Over the course of the 12-game season, the Trojans won the third quarter by a cumulative score of 164-35, and the second half by a combined 305-121.

2. Not to go all Doublemint on you, but if a team has two 1,000-yard rushers, two Heisman Trophy winners, and two consecutive national championships, I think that might qualify as one, if not two, reasons to win a BCS Championship Game.

1. History. There's too much history within the grasp of USC for the Trojans to let it get away. A victory will mean an unprecedented third consecutive AP national championship, an unprecedented second consecutive BCS championship and a 35-game winning streak that will tie for the third longest in the last 100 years.


Texas:

19. No weak links. Texas is excellent in all three phases of the game. The Horns rank in the top five in 10 of the 14 major team statistical categories kept by the NCAA. By contrast, the Trojans rank in the top five in just four of those categories. USC gave up 42 points to Fresno State and 31 to Notre Dame. Texas hasn't given up more than 30 in a game all year. Texas has scored seven touchdowns via defense or special teams this year. USC has scored just four. USC is No. 115 nationally in net punting. Texas returner Aaron Ross ranks No. 8 nationally in punt returns. The trick, of course, is making USC punt. The Trojans do figure to kick off a few times. And the Horns are third in the nation in kickoff returns. All of which means …

18. Texas will win the field-position battle. Thirty of USC's touchdown drives this season were 80 yards or longer, and 45 went 70 yards or more. Texas had only 19 80-plus-yard drives and 20 of 70 or more. Thanks to defense and special teams, the Horns play on a shorter field than their opponents.

17. The hype is getting heavy around USC. The Texas players all dismissed talk about feeling disrespected. Don't believe it. They know that ESPN has been running a series of "dream games" matching USC against the best teams in modern college football history. They know that USC is a fat touchdown-plus favorite. They know that some people are calling the USC offense the greatest ever, even though Texas has scored more points this season. If there was a need for a few more ounces of motivational fuel for this game, Texas has it.

16. The unbeatable Gene Chizik. You've heard all about USC's 34-game winning streak, but the Texas co-defensive coordinator hasn't lost in nearly as long. Chizik came to Austin this year from Auburn, where he'd won 15 straight. His personal streak now stands at 27, and his defense is awfully good.

14. Size matters. Texas averages 314 pounds across the offensive line. USC averages 275 pounds across the defensive front. That 40-pound cushion will help with the pushin' in the trenches -- and truth be told, many of the Trojans look noticeably smaller than their listed measurements. Quickness and athleticism can negate size advantages, of course, but the Texas O-line isn't just a bunch of fat guys. They can move for their size and rank among the best units in America -- hence the Horns' steamroller rushing numbers (273.8 yards per game, second in the nation).

13. Vince matters even more. USC hasn't seen a player that big, that fast, that determined and that charismatic -- especially one who has the ball in his hands on every play. The one thing I believe will take the Trojans by surprise is his strength and how hard he is to bring down. If Young stays within the hugely successful structure of the Texas offense, he'll have a big night and the Horns will roll up points and yards.

12. TE David Thomas -- remember the name and the position. The Trojans have had trouble containing good tight ends in their two closest games of the year. Fresno State's Devyn McDonald had a career-high five catches for 64 yards against USC, and Notre Dame's Anthony Fasano caught four balls for 86 yards. Thomas, the All-Big 12 tight end, led Texas in receptions with 40 and is a guy Young looks for in pressure situations. USC had better be looking for him, too.

10. Texas starts faster. The Horns have scored the first 14 points (at least) in each of their last four games, and have scored first 11 out of 12 games. They've outscored opponents 180-59 in the first quarter and 362-104 in the first half. Coming from behind against Texas won't be as easy for USC as coming from behind against Fresno, Notre Dame, Arizona State or Oregon.

7. Strength in numbers. If this becomes a battle of attrition, you have to like the team that rotates as many as four running backs and five wide receivers. If exhaustion or injuries are a factor, that favors Texas. The Horns have a bundle of guys capable of going the distance from anywhere. They peeled off 26 plays of 40 yards or more this year, and nine different players had a hand in those 26 plays.

2. Three is too many. There is a good reason why there's never been a national title threepeat: It's incredibly hard. This is the football gods' last chance to underscore that immortality doesn't come cheap, by denying the Trojans on the doorstep to history.

[CubsWinIn04]

I've done that over and over again, on both computers, both user's........still 7 -105 for me -7.5 -105 for him. I have a few plays already on USC at -7.5, -7 -105, and -7 even. If that has anything to do with anything. He has nothing as of yet.

[Kevroc]

Two hours until the Championship and I have thought long and hard about this one. I want to back the 'Horns here but, just can't. Too many superlatives on the USC side here.

Texas has't seen a D like this one. Ohio State is a good D but, a believe the USC D that shut down UCLA is better than that one.

So the reasoning behind "Texas is the better D so worth a wager" is not rock solid. Texas can move the ball between the red zones very well. USC buries it when in the red zone.

That will be the difference tonight. Red Zone Offense and of course Turnovers.

USC 42-14. Good Luck Everyone!

[Vince Young]

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Field goals won't cut it with these offenses. Any trip into the opponents' red zone (the 20-yard line and in) must result in a touchdown.

In this area, give the Longhorns a slight edge.

They have scored touchdowns on 76 percent of their red zone opportunities, compared with USC's 73 percent success rate. (The slight difference could be because of Vince Young, who is a threat to score by running or passing.)

The Longhorns also have an advantage in red zone defense. They have kept opponents from scoring touchdowns 52 percent of the time, compared with USC's 40.4 percent.

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[talcum]

I'm on USC. Both teams obviously great. I don't think you can go by stats points/yardage allowed too much because conferences play differently. Oklahoma beating Oregon is not that significant to me because Oregon isn't that great with Dixon/Leaf at QB and Oklahoma was on the improve at the end of the year. Texas beat a good Ohio State team but I think OSU was much better at the end of the year than beginning. I think USC has another gear that they can call on when they need to and according to scouts better projected NFL talent overall especially on offensive line and of course Bush who looks like future hall-of-famer but of course you never know but he can obviously dominate at college level. I won't be surprised if Texas wins but IMO they will have to be at least +2 on turnovers and/or have special teams come up big- they do block a lot of kicks so you never know. I'm saying USC 41 Texas 28

[lastchance]

I just don't think this USC side has the defense or special teams that will keep the #2 offense in CFB to under 30 points. They played OSU, in their worst game of the season, and still scored 25 points. They haven't been held to less than 40 points since, and USC Defense has not been impressive against Arizona State, Notre Dame, and Fresno, and this Texas team has a better offense than all of them.

On the flip side, this is the most talented and best offense I can remember seeing in CFB, but this team isn't as good as last year's, because the defense is quite suspect, IMHO.

[bills217]

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I like the over. 70 points just seems too low for these 2 offenses.

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[MookieBlaylock]

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I like the over. 70 points just seems too low for these 2 offenses.

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I took the over as well (I got it at 68 though). Unfortunately both teams are doing everything they can to keep it under. Its almost laughable know: 2 failed 4th down conversions, fumbles, Bushs "lateral". All in the first 17 minutes. Oh well, thats why they play 4 quarters.

[accountant71]

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Let's see USC hasn't lost a game in about 3 years and this is probably the best team they have had in 3 years.

Texas is overrated and has played one of the softest schedules I have ever seen.

Vince Young blows

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Vince Young does blow. He is blowing past USC's defenders every other play.