50/100 party hand

[DavidC]

If it's not too much trouble, why do you guys think that the three-bettor could have diamonds... it's a pretty uncommon play for that hand at the limits that I play.

[catlover]

Well I'm guessing it's about 50/50 you are up against a higher flush draw. So that means you effectively have 8 outs -- three straight outs, the straight flush out, and eight flush outs which are good half the time. Effectively you are about as likely to win with this hand as you are with an open ended straight draw. Which means you should call.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I'm guessing it's about 50/50 you are up against a higher flush draw. So that means you effectively have 8 outs -- three straight outs, the straight flush out, and eight flush outs which are good half the time. Effectively you are about as likely to win with this hand as you are with an open ended straight draw. Which means you should call.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you're up against a higher draw, count on losing at least 2 BB when you hit, but once you call 3 cold here you kill all of your action if you aren't. Your implied odds suck so I think this is a pass.

Edit: I guess you can cap to disguise it and maybe be sure to fold something like A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Kx but it sure feels like spewing [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[TxRedMan]

Easy fold IMO. Sure the pots big, but the action indicated that unless these guys are morons you're drawing at a gutshot most of the time to win, and i dont think your flush draw will be good here very often, especially when you take into consideration the times it will come diamond, diamond.

Looks a lot like someone having TP w/ f draw here.

I'd fold this hand PF though, so i wouldnt be in this spot, but, assuming i was in this hand, i'd probably see a draw at the total nuts and lead at it. But, given the situation, if i checked the flop, i'm folding here when it's 3 to me.




Tex

[JeffO]

[ QUOTE ]


I'd fold this hand PF though, so i wouldnt be in this spot, but, assuming i was in this hand, i'd probably see a draw at the total nuts and lead at it.




Tex

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding this hand preflop would be just plain wrong.

[Net Warrior]

Per Catalin Barboianu in "Texas Hold'em Odds", if you flop a 4 flush when you have 2 of a suit then the probability of AT LEAST ONE OF YOUR OPPONENTS making a flush vs 3 opponents is 4.439%. OTOH, if there are 3 flush cards on the board by the river (giving you a flush) then the probability of AT LEAST ONE OF YOUR OPPONENTS making a flush vs 3 opponents is 7.075%.

[KathleenStand]

You guys are nuts. Cap.

[ihardlyknowher]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is probably a fold, but we should probably do some math.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that you will lose about 30-35% of the time you hit one of your draws here, other than your 4% chance at the stone cold nuts. But I am not sure whether this would make it a call, fold, or raise.

[The Dude]

Let's do some very quick math here. Assuming the pfr is going to fold for two more AND the flop raiser is going to cap (this is worst-case scenario as far as pot odds goes), you'll be getting 19:4 to see a turn card (9.5:2 is a better way to look at it, since you're impied odds are in terms of big bets).

So if we ignore implied odds altogether, you need just under 10 outs in order to call. You have 4 outs 100% of the time, so your other 8 flush outs must be good roughly 75% of the time in order to call. (This is a bit over-simplified, but I think it's a good place to start.)

I'm not sure why everybody seems so convinced that there's a bigger flush draw out there. The flop raiser almost certainly doesn't have one, and while the 3-better could have a flush draw, I think it'd be more likely had he just cold-called. The original pfr could have a flush draw, but there's no reason to think he does either.

I really can't see folding being the best play. Nothing about the way the action's gone down so far screams flush draw to me. I think you're more likely to be up against a set than a flush draw.

Cap it up. You've got pretty good equity in this hand, and capping it keeps your hand disguised.

[KingJtheStandard]

call for another card, hit the flush and on the turn and make them go away or pray one of them doesn't fill up.