Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?

[DeucesUp]

[ QUOTE ]
This is the line I am having trouble with:
<< (T –L) / L (T+2) + 1 = percentage won.

In his example (T-L) would not equal 1.55

[/ QUOTE ]

You're right 1.55 is a typo:

(T –L) / L (T+2) + 1 = percentage won

(1.55-1.45) / 1.45(1.55 + 2) + 1
=
(.1) / 1.45(1.55 + 2) + 1
=
(.1) / 1.45(3.55) + 1
=
(.1) / 5.15 + 1
=
(.1) / 6.15
=
0.0162
=
1.6%


If you've balanced the amount bet such that you win the same amount no matter who wins by using (T + 1) /( L + 1) x L then you can use a simplier equation of:

%won = (amount won) / (amount wagered)

Amount won is 1.55 - 1.51 = 0.04 (this is amount won if the +155 team wins, but will be the same if the -145 team wins except for rounding error: (1.51/1.45)-1=0.04.

Amount wagered is 1.51 + 1 = 2.51

%won = (1.55 - 1.51) / (1.51 + 1)
=
0.04 / 2.51
=
1.6%


Note however that these are not these are not optimal bet sizes for this scalp. I'll let you see if you can figure out why. Here's a hint: The above gives you the highest guaranteed profit, but not the highest expected profit. You want to maximize expected profit.

[Qbawler311]

First, Thank you again DeucesUp.

[ QUOTE ]
Note however that these are not these are not optimal bet sizes for this scalp. I'll let you see if you can figure out why. Here's a hint: The above gives you the highest guaranteed profit, but not the highest expected profit. You want to maximize expected profit.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to weight your bets more on who is expected to win some % of the time. You center the lines and find what percentage of the time the favorite is expected to win, then you weight your gauranteed bets in accordance with the expected probabilities?

center(155, -145) = 150
So fav is expected to win (or cover) 3 to 2 times or 60%-40%

So you want to portion the gauranteed winnings 60% on the side of the fav. covering?

[DeucesUp]

Got it!

Multiply the amount you'll win if teamA wins by the probability that teamA wins for your expected profit. Then do the same for teamB. The expected profit is the number you want to be the same on each side.

[Qbawler311]

Most of you were a great help. Thanks again.

Signed,

The idiot

[B00T]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont mean to burst your bubble (actually I do), but if you are struggling with this 8th grade level math, I doubt your software is going to be worth buying or even using yourself. There are several companies that already sell software that alerts people of arbs and have tons of other features. Also, sports arbitrage sounds like great easy money, but it really isn't. You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit. If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good. I would rather play 1-2NL and make 200 in a three or four hours.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a joke?

[Qbawler311]

A rough version of the software is working (with test data), I will be detecting scalps from 5-10 books by next week. If any of you pros know the best combo of sites to scan to find the most arbs I would appreciate a list. So far I got pinnacle, sport interaction, and bodog for MLB. After MLB I'm going to load NFL pages.

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]
A rough version of the software is working (with test data), I will be detecting scalps from 5-10 books by next week. If any of you pros know the best combo of sites to scan to find the most arbs I would appreciate a list. So far I got pinnacle, sport interaction, and bodog for MLB. After MLB I'm going to load NFL pages.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't seriously be this fuucking stupid?

[Qbawler311]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't seriously be this fuucking stupid?

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I am...what now?

How are new people supposed to learn about anything using this forum if all you arrogant pricks are calling them idiot and stupid non-stop?

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
How are new people supposed to learn about anything using this forum if all you arrogant pricks are calling them idiot and stupid non-stop?

[/ QUOTE ]
1) this is a discussion forum, not a spoon feeder service. if you're looking for free milk, give your mother a call.

2) every 'question' you've asked here is related to some kind of software you're developing which you presumably hope to sell...back to us? yet you have no ability to do math and I even doubt that you know anything useful about sportsbetting in general. hell, I wouldn't even install your program for free in fear that my computer would suddenly lose the ability to do math as well.

3) everyone gets exactly what they deserve here. you're the only one getting called an idiot, and you're the only one whining about it too. go figure.

[freerollin]

[ QUOTE ]
You have to be glued to the computer screen for hours and hours a day to turn even a pittance of a profit. If you have $50,000 to start with in 20 sports-betting accounts, you can spend every waking hour at the computer and make $150 bucks a day if you're good.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm glad that this is the common perception, but its really not true. dig a little deeper, or really, take a couple of steps back and look at the situation from another angle. you're a poker player right? try to connect the dots and see there are ways to get the best of it that don't require what you say it does