+EV for baseball parlay?

[tjd2001]

I just wanted to see what you guys think...I have started a little study on whether its +EV to parlay all my runline picks (-1.5) with the total runs over. I would only do it games in which the favorite is NOT throwing their number 1 or number 2 starter (the rational being that the extra run they must win by - or a larger proportion of it - will come from greater offense rather than from good pitching...thus contributing to a greater likielyhood of the over hitting (i know this is incredibly obvious, but i was to see if there is a real significance. So far i have explored about ten teams over the last two years taking all times a favorite covers the runline and is not throwing there number 1 or 2 starter (i choose before analizing each teams number 1 and 2) and checking it against the over/under.
While my results have been positive, by sample size is extrememly too small...i have a lot more work to do but before i continue a few questions...
I was wondering if a) do people think this makes sense?
b) if there is a baseball searcable database similar to sportsbookpal?
c) if anyone has done similar research?
d) are there any other parameters you may recommend including (e.g. only large favorite -175 moneylines and better)?

TJ

[Josh W]

First off, a lot of books won't let you do this.

Secondly, I'd suggest you do it only with odd-numbered totals (i.e 7, 7.5, 9, and 9.5). The reason for this is:

Lets assume the total is close to accurate. If the total is 7 or 7.5, then it seems reasonable that 8 runs being scored is more likely than 9 runs being scored (and 6 is more likely than 5, but since you said 'over', I'm only focusing on the 'overs').

Since 8 is more likely than 9, 5-3 is more likely than 5-4, which is nice since you are more likely to win the -1.5 portion of the bet.

If the total is 8 or 8.5, you need to fave to score 6 runs. But at the same time, if the total is 9 or 9.5, the fave still only needs to score 6 runs to have a chance to win.

If the total is 7 or 7.5, you need to fave to score 5 runs. But at the same time, if the total is 6.5 (rare, but hypothetical), the fave still needs to score 5 runs to win.

I wish this was easier to explain in words. GOod luck,

Josh

[DeucesUp]

I see where you're going with this, and you've got a good point, but you have to be careful. 8 isn't going to be more likely than 9 even if the total is 7 because you can't finish 4-4. Most games that are 4-4 after 9innings will finish 5-4.

Edit:
(even more reason not to parlay the RL with OVER on even totals)

[Josh W]

Good point. However, I think we can take my point and maneuver with it a bit.

Say the two teams are close to even (maybe a -120 line or so). If the total is 7.5, we'd expect the fave to score about 4 runs. If the total is 8 or 8.5, we'd expect them to score about 4-4.5 runs. In the 7.5 game, the fave would have to score 5 (1 above expectation) to possibly win. In the 8 or 8.5 game, the fave would have to score 6 (1.5-2 above expectation) to have a chance at winning.

Mind you, I have no data to back any of this up. This is just what my intuition tells me.

Josh