Sometimes SNGs aren't poker: Open-Folding QQ 3-Handed?

[Nicholasp27]

sb is pushing, but how many times...there is some % chance that he just had good hands so doesn't know bubble strategy...also, just because he knows u can't call (or if u do, he's still itm if he loses the 'flip') doesn't mean that he knows to fold to shorty...he has never folded to shorty yet so we can't assume he knows to do that

and again, if he folds to shorty, then next time around u can do this same strategy, since u are folding to his reraise anyway your cards don't matter...i just don't think sb folds often enough to make it +ev to minraise/fold...again, it's all in how u weight those 4 outcomes that u presented...i weight the fold/raise option much higher than the fold/fold option so imo folding is best

it's not a seriously -$ev setup unless sb knows how to utilize the setup...as long as he's content to push until shorty is gone, it's not a bad setup

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'm risk-averse. Also, if SB has enough brains to push any two over your minraise, he's also folding nearly everything to the absent BB so he can abuse you all day. Put a stop to this seriously -$EV table setup. Think about it. How much of your stack do you have to lose before anything except fold is the better choice? It'll cost a lot more than 400 chips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly...This is similar logic as used with NE theory HU.

Spend 200 now, to be able to play "normally" and not lose 500, 800, 1100, later? Or fold and continue this awful cycle?

The obvious choice is to end it...If that means just calling then so be it. I am calling here with 32o and as well with QQ, there is little to no difference in mind.

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT gives +3.3% for an all-in raise with QQ given SB calls 100% and BB calls 0%. With a minimum edge of 0.2% the raising range is 88+, AKs.

[/ QUOTE ]

a) min edge should be +.5%

b) sngPT is not the only thing to consider here...sngPT only knows that THIS hand bb will fold...it doesn't know that bb will fold EVERY hand until blinded in...i agree, if i know bb is at the table but just sitting out this one hand, then i push qq...but since i know he's sitting out every hand, i fold

sngPT is not the only consideration

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]
Folding is not an option if SB is a thinking 119 opponent. OP already stated he has some clue what he's doing so it's very reasonable to assume he's smart enough to keep the big blind alive.

[/ QUOTE ]


yes, the number one consideration in this hand is whether or not sb will fold this hand...

btw, minraising is MUCH better than flat calling in this scenario...if u call, then bb has a 1/3 chance of getting 3 400 more chips this hand....if u minraise, then bb is folded automatically...so u CAN'T just call...and no reason to do 3bb raise unless u think that has a lot of FE, which it doesn't based on read

[Ditch Digger]

Pooh hit it on the head. We need to just call with any hand, fold to a sb push, if there is a flop and it's check to us we min bet.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
SNGPT gives +3.3% for an all-in raise with QQ given SB calls 100% and BB calls 0%. With a minimum edge of 0.2% the raising range is 88+, AKs.

[/ QUOTE ]

a) min edge should be +.5%

b) sngPT is not the only thing to consider here...sngPT only knows that THIS hand bb will fold...it doesn't know that bb will fold EVERY hand until blinded in...i agree, if i know bb is at the table but just sitting out this one hand, then i push qq...but since i know he's sitting out every hand, i fold

sngPT is not the only consideration

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo!!

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]
Spend 200 now, to be able to play "normally" and not lose 500, 800, 1100, later? Or fold and continue this awful cycle?

The obvious choice is to end it...If that means just calling then so be it. I am calling here with 32o and as well with QQ, there is little to no difference in mind.

[/ QUOTE ]


well there isn't an awful cycle yet...i agree to minraise any2 next round IF sb folds here...but we don't yet know that he'll do that...there is no awful cycle until sb decides to fold to bb

and we can't just call, as that gives bb a 'flip's' chance of increasing in stack size...has to be a minraise if we play (or push if u swing that way), not a call

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Spend 200 now, to be able to play "normally" and not lose 500, 800, 1100, later? Or fold and continue this awful cycle?

The obvious choice is to end it...If that means just calling then so be it. I am calling here with 32o and as well with QQ, there is little to no difference in mind.

[/ QUOTE ]


well there isn't an awful cycle yet...i agree to minraise any2 next round IF sb folds here...but we don't yet know that he'll do that...there is no awful cycle until sb decides to fold to bb

and we can't just call, as that gives bb a 'flip's' chance of increasing in stack size...has to be a minraise if we play (or push if u swing that way), not a call

[/ QUOTE ]

BB's hand is folded when he is sitting out, or am I misunderstanding you?

You call, SB calls or raises, it doesnt matter bc BB autofolds. Therefore, calling is fine.

[gisb0rne]

I just realized I screwed up the SNGPT calcs I did. /ignore.

[Nicholasp27]

if u call and he just calls, bb goes along, which then means u HAVE to minbet at some point in the hand...u CANNOT allow bb to see the river unraised and possibly win

so, if u wanna not fold, then u have to examine if it's better to minbet here or call here...if u call here, u do have that shot at hitting a set on the flop and u also save 200 chips over minbetting if he just reraises u pf (most likely)


so...i take it back...calling is better than minraising

so we have 3 options

a) fold

b) push

c) call (minbet at some street if not raised)