Sometimes SNGs aren't poker: Open-Folding QQ 3-Handed?

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
You are risking more than 10x the big blind amount to push.
You might want to consider strategic options other than moving in here.

[/ QUOTE ]

[BadMongo]

As for the OP, you just OPEN FOLD the queens. If we limp or raise, we invite SB to go all-in, and we CANNOT CALL. The only way to win this hand is to put all of our chips in the pot, which is idiotic with anything less than aces considering the circumstances and the payout structure. There's 300 in the pot, which will have a negligible effect on our prize pool equity if we win it. On the other hand, loosing our stack is disaterous. Just fold, pick up your 35%, then play some poker for the other 30%.

[Mark L]

this is such an easy fold. it gets maybe more interested if you have AA.

[kevstreet]

Nice post OP, although the subject title should be changed a little. This is definitely poker or at the least "tournament" poker.

[2Fast]

fold - why take a chance here if you know shorty's out in 2 hands - pick a better spot once you're heads up

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]

How is shorty going to win this hand if he's sitting out? I guess if SB calls and for some [censored] reason we both check it down.

Perhaps I should rephrase, unless something crazy happens we are guaranteed to get 2nd place if we continue to not let shorty get a walk.

[/ QUOTE ]

no, when he has <1bb left, he will be put in and get to play the hand, even tho he is sitting out...that's when he has a 50/50 chance of doubling up

[caretaker1]

FWIW:
SNGPT (using Party6Max structure, which has same payout)

When BB calling range is 0% and
SB's calling range is:
Top 20%: 88+, AT+
Top 40%: QQ+
100%: QQ+

If pushing > folding > losing 200-600 chips to the reraise when you have to puke the hand how is this not a push?

I'm clearly in the minority and there are multiple posters whose opinions I respect very much who say a smallish raise is best. What am I missing? Does the value of forcing the BB to effectively "fold" without getting his blind back enough to make giving up the chips better than both the folding and pushing options?

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
why make the raise when u can just flat call and accomplish the same thing? because of the tiny bit of FE from a raise?

i'd only see raising if i want sb to push with any2, giving me an 80/20 against that range

again, i don't think sb is good enough to fold to bb until i see it...at that point, i'll start flat calling any2 just to ensure no folding occurs...also, if the blind is about to go up before the next rotation, then i don't have to worry about that, as shorty will be put in by the blinds

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed...If you think SB is pushing over any raise then just call. If, however you believe SB will actually fold X% of the time to make a standard raise profitable, then do that. Bottom line is, just enter the pot and don't push whatever you do.

[Slim Pickens]

I realize there is a microstack involved so my ICM calculations will be slightly biased toward overvaluing his chips and undervaluing yours, but that should just strengthen my conclusion.

There is no possible outcome after you minraise that leaves you with less prize pool equity than you had to start the hand.

prehand: (stacks/equity in $)
(2995,5675,330)/(276,349,34)

if you fold:
(2995,5575,430)/(272,344,44) if SB folds
(2995,5875,130)/(288,357,14) if SB raises

if you minraise:
(3295,5575,130)/(295,350,14) if SB folds
(2595,6275,130)/(278,367,15) if SB raises

The 200 chips you force SB to steal from BB by raising are worth more to BB than the 400 are to you, no matter what. This is different if BB isn't sitting out.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
Does the value of forcing the BB to effectively "fold" without getting his blind back enough to make giving up the chips better than both the folding and pushing options?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I think so. My argument would be sacrificing 15% of your stack to eliminate 60% of BB's.