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Old 03-22-2006, 06:57 PM
bigalt bigalt is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 1,260
Default Re: Top pair and 4th pair on dangerous river

I agree with your assessment of the flop. THere are really no hands you want to fold that would conceivably fold, except MAYbe for a weak jack. Except even those aren't a problem since you aren't really planning on seeing a showdown UI.

The turn call is pretty marginal. With maybe 1 ace out, 3 queen outs, and 2 ten outs (give or take an out or two on each count) you're just barely getting the odds to call, and I don't think implied odds are working in your favor. Button's not passive, but I'd still be more inclined to go further in the hand if he was a little bit more aggressive.

Once you get to the river though, I definltey think this is a donk/fold. You're probably losing this pot more than 50% of the time, but he'll call a bet from you with a worse hand a lot more often than he'll check through a better hand.
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