HU 25/50 really weird spot deep

[cmyr]

this is really strange, and i'm really curious.

The fact that you have the Kc and that he won't likely do this with a Qhigh flush makes it more likely that he has a set; your raise on the flop could've convinced him that this isn't how you play the nut flush, although this is certainly how *I'd* expect you to play the nut flush.

You have an eight and a king, which hurts if he does have an underflush.

Tilting opponents are much more likely to put you on a bluff.

Brian has to know that check-calling the turn with 88 is terrible; he does not know this about the Q high flush.

Brian understands that against your turn c/r calling range, he'd much rather have a set then a low flush.


He has no particular reason to put you on AA, given your 3betting range, but it has to be in the back of his head; this one might incline him to play an underflush fast. Not sure how heavily this weighs, though.



All told I think his range is either 88/77, probably with a flush blocker, or is a small-mid flush that has some kind of minor redraw. I think the 88 is enough of his range (it only needs to be 20% or so, and it might be significantly more) that this is a call; the most important factor to me is that a set fairs much better against your calling range then a flush does.