Ron Paul is going to take Nevada and New Hampshire

[DVaut1]

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Wasn't someone offering me 1:1 on ron paul getting 8% of the vote in New Hampshire a few months ago? I'd love to take that bet, whoever you were.

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It was MPK, and the numbers 7% NH/5% Iowa. I was going to back MPK because I thought it was a pretty good bet at the time. I wouldn't put any money on that at this point.

I still don't think he'll beat these by much, but clearly since July (when the original bet was offered) Paul has drastically exceeded expectations and gained momentum.

RCP poll averages have Paul at 6.8% in New Hampshire, 4.5% in Iowa. I suspect he'll end up punting in one of those states (Iowa) and pouring resources in the other (NH). So if I had to bet now, I suspect he'd be close to 5% in Iowa and would beat 7% in NH.

But yes, had you taken the bet in July, it would have looked pretty good right about now.