flopped top set...

[robrobdoe]

[ QUOTE ]

This is a common missconception. That a pot can reach a level where no matter what the info tells you, you should not fold. The question is never, is the pot too big to fold? The question is, is the pot too big to fold relative to the level of information I have?

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point.

I'd say UTG+1's range preflop is AJ+, QQ, KK, AA
BB has a much wider range given I don't have much info on him, and he seems loose - pocket pair (probably not higher than 10s given he didn't cap), broadway cards, Ax, suited connectors maybe

Flop doesn't narrow it down much, UTG+1 could have an overpair, AJ or possibly just overcards AQ/AK, BB could have a J, underset (though he'd probably cap), loosely played pocket pair lower than Js

BB leads out again at turn but just calls raises, no idea what he could have; UTG+1 caps this time, suggesting set of Qs or AQ (with a flush draw?), might still be an overpair

BB leads out for third time at river, and UTG+1 raises. BB could still have almost anything. UTG+1 doesn't seem scared by A, so unlikely to be KK, could still be AQ, QQ, AA. Getting over 10:1 on the call, not knowing enough about BB, and not expecting a raise behind from BB, I think the first call is correct.

After that, with the BB reraising for the first time, it suggests he's hit something (aces up, straight, outside chance of AA); UTG+1 capping means he's a lot more likely to have an overset than AQ. So the second time round, it should be a fold.

Any good?