Problem with your book - Page 5

damaniac · #41 01-03-2006, 03:55 PM

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If I repost this in the Books/Publication/Software forum, will I get a better answer?

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No you'll just get ripped on by a different group of people. And rightly so.

It's not just because you are wrong: though you are. It's because you came here with a question, have been told in one way or another by everyone that it is wrong, and then you decide that you're not wrong and everyone else here is stupid. Physician, heal thyself.

master_hellmuth · #42 01-03-2006, 03:56 PM

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If I repost this in the Books/Publication/Software forum, will I get a better answer?

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No you'll just get ripped on by a different group of people. And rightly so.

It's not just because you are wrong: though you are. It's because you came here with a question, have been told in one way or another by everyone that it is wrong, and then you decide that you're not wrong and everyone else here is stupid. Physician, heal thyself.

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At least two people in this thread have agreed with me. And most of you are not roulette players...

master_hellmuth · #43 01-03-2006, 03:57 PM

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because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.

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But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events!

loyalguard · #44 01-03-2006, 03:58 PM

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At least two people in this thread have agreed with me. And most of you are not roulette players...

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Please turn on your sarcasm detector.

damaniac · #45 01-03-2006, 03:59 PM

Think about this a different way. You're flipping a coin. You hit 19 H in a row. Now you think the odds a T is now more likely than a H. Why would this be? Does the coin know it's come up 19H in a row and thus needs to produce a T? What physical phenomenon would alter the probability of a 50/50 proposition?

master_hellmuth · #46 01-03-2006, 04:00 PM

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At least two people in this thread have agreed with me. And most of you are not roulette players...

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Please turn on your sarcasm detector. <font color="white">you first, moran</font>

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I don't understand. I come here with a simple problem and get a lot of dumb responses. If people were being sarcastic then thats just silly when I'm trying to have a legitimate conversation.

damaniac · #47 01-03-2006, 04:00 PM

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because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.

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But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events!

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No he's basing them on probability. Given enough trials, there comes a point where even a rare event becomes more likely than not to occur: over an infinite amount of time, the P of an event must be 0 or 1. That's this is based on, not past events.

master_hellmuth · #48 01-03-2006, 04:02 PM

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because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.

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But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events!

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No he's basing them on probability. Given enough trials, there comes a point where even a rare event becomes more likely than not to occur: over an infinite amount of time, the P of an event must be 0 or 1. That's this is based on, not past events.

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We are saying the same thing, I agree with you 100 percent. Now extrapolate what you just said a little further. If over an infinite amount of time a rare event is more likely to occur, than over a finite amount of time it is as well, just less so than over the infinite.

crunchy1 · #49 01-03-2006, 04:03 PM

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because a long term span will also eventually include a period of time where it comes 19 heads in a row.

[/ QUOTE ] But why? Why will a long term period of time eventually include 19 heads in a row. How do you know this? You are predicting future results.... Based on past events!

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Then I've got a better challenge than playing HU...

You and I will sit down at a table with a quarter. We'll flip it over and over. Everytime we manage to flip heads 19 times in a row - you can give me 100-to-1 on any amount of money that the next (20th) flip will be tails.

Sound like a deal?

Alk3 · #50 01-03-2006, 04:03 PM

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At least two people in this thread have agreed with me. And most of you are not roulette players...

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Please turn on your sarcasm detector. <font color="white">you first, moran</font>

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I don't understand. I come here with a simple problem and get a lot of dumb responses. If people were being sarcastic then thats just silly when I'm trying to have a legitimate conversation.

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None of the responses have been dumb, most have told you, in very lucid and understandable terms, why you're wrong. Although for some reason I'm still giving you the benefit of the doubt and saying you're posting this just to be annoying, and you do actually know better.