*** ALDS Game 2: Yankees vs. Indians (Pettite/Carmona)

[ADLinden]

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so, for game 3 westbrook vs clemens

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/

+180 clev
-210 NY

if the game was played 100 times, how many times would cleveland win?

33?

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i think this will be a high scoring game, so it may be hard to tell, i think both pitchers may get rocked, prolly slightly more likely westbrook does than clemens though

[THAY3R]

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i just think we are putting too much emphasis on numbers and stats and stuff, cmon baseball is different than poker people

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No.

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Yes.

I know its fun to look at numbers and stuff when talking baseball, but when it comes down to hit, none of that matters. "That's why they play the games."

People don't look back and say ,"well we had the best team so in the long run , we win"

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there not variance in baseball games?

[sethypooh21]

What does the A in A-Rod stand for?

April.

[ADLinden]

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[ QUOTE ]
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i just think we are putting too much emphasis on numbers and stats and stuff, cmon baseball is different than poker people

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

I know its fun to look at numbers and stuff when talking baseball, but when it comes down to hit, none of that matters. "That's why they play the games."

People don't look back and say ,"well we had the best team so in the long run , we win"

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there not variance in baseball games?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course there is, I don't think that contradicts my point.

[ADLinden]

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What does the A in A-Rod stand for?

April.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[Arnold_O]

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Line is a bit skewed because everybody loves to bet on the Yankees.

Yanks are somewhere between 55-60% favorites.

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okay, so it's not a lock for the yanks. good to hear.

[kyleb]

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I like you Kyle, you provide outstanding insight, and without the overwhelming douchiness of Thayer.

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First of all, the playoffs don't dictate who the best team in baseball is. The current roster of the New York Yankees is without question the best team in baseball. If they were ballsy enough to use Joba and Hughes as starters, the matchup in the ALDS would be in NYY's favor even more.

Hughes suffered a random freak injury that sidelined him for a significant amount of time; that was hardly predictable. Assume the lineups and rotations are:

Wang
Pettitte
Hughes
Chamberlin
Clemens

Damon
Jeter
Abreu
A-Rod
Giambi
Cabrera
Matsui
Posada
Cano

That is unquestionably the best offense in baseball and the rotation may very well also be the best in baseball. You have to remember that while the Indians stand to be a favorite vs. the Yankees in a five-game series, that's because we can start Sabathia on short rest, giving us four appearances by aces. On the other hand, they can only start Wang twice as a potential ace (today's antics not withstanding, Andy is not an ace). A short series heavily benefits top-heavy pitching and high-leverage bullpens (in the hypothetical Joba/Hughes starter rotation, the Indians have an advantage in the bullpen department).

As a performance analyst and one who loves the math behind the game, remember that I am also occasionally an irrational fan. For christ's sake, I bunt on my amateur teams with runners on 1st/2nd and no outs in the third inning, just because I really like the idea of runners on 2nd/3rd with 1 out. That's probably wrong, but until you actually have to make some of these decisions, it's tough to just say "this is the math, do it."

But I digress. The two next best teams in baseball are the Red Sox and the Indians. What do they look like?

Red Sox:

Beckett
Matsuzaka
Schilling
Wakefield
Buchholz

Crisp
Drew
Ortiz
Manny / Ellsbury
Lowell
Youkilis
Pedroia
Varitek
Lugo

The Red Sox are probably the 2nd best team in baseball given this configuration.

Indians:

Sabathia
Carmona
Westbrook
Byrd
Laffey

Sizemore
Cabrera
Hafner
Martinez
Garko
Peralta
Gutierrez
Blake
Lofton

Though we have two legitimate aces and neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox can match them (ignoring projections of Hughes + Joba and Buchholz, respectively), our lineup is inferior to theirs (while still quite good) and the pitching overall is probably worse. Westbrook, Byrd, and Laffey are league-average pitchers, while Pettitte, Hughes, and Chamberlin all figure to be better than league average, as does Matsuzaka, Schilling, and Buchholz.

The gap is closed somewhat due to the fact that Cleveland's defense is significantly better than both the Yankees and the Red Sox in the given configurations; spelling Manny with Ellsbury and Giambi with Mientkiwicz helps some but obviously doesn't compensate for much.

At one point in the season I could confidently say that the Indians were the best team in baseball, and that may have been quite true. I think they are close to the Red Sox and the Yankees, and with a payroll 30% of the Yankees and 45% of the Red Sox, I will take that. We certainly have one of the best $:marginal win ratio, and definitely have the best $:leveraged win ratio. That's what's really important: It shows that Shapiro/Antonetti can get it done regardless of payroll, and if Dolan adds more money after we win the World Series this year, we can hope to keep the ratio close while improving the team overall.

I hope that explained some of my thought process; though it didn't use any advanced statistics, it should give you some insight on to how I think. It's only a matter of plugging in actual/projected data here and figuring out the best team, but I have a feeling that the Yankees are a significant favorite over both the Red Sox and Indians by most measures in these configurations.

[kyleb]

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Yeah, that's really not fair because it takes way more than 25 players to make it through a full season. We could say the same thing about benching Barfield, Lee, Sowers, and Marte, as well as cutting Rouse and Oldberto.

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Be that as it may, Cleveland is better than Boston and New York at cutting bait on bad players and replacing them immediately. The decisions to replace Marte, Michaels/Dellucci, Nixon, Barfield, and a host of middle relievers is something that 90% of teams would not do simply because they are afraid of young talent and their "unproven" nature.

This is the reason that I like teams such as the Indians, Devil Rays, Diamondbacks, and Athletics: They tend to play their best players regardless of their age.

EDIT: And in doing that, Cleveland gains real wins in the W-L columns as a result.

[THAY3R]

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Line is a bit skewed because everybody loves to bet on the Yankees.

Yanks are somewhere between 55-60% favorites.

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okay, so it's not a lock for the yanks. good to hear.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course not, it's baseball.

The DRays would have a very good shot at winning the WS if they just made the playoffs.

The skill comes in making the Playoffs, after that it's pretty much a crapshoot.

* Note: Playoffs are very exciting, and fun, and all that. I enjoy it alot, especially since the Yankees ran sick good in the 90s. The playoffs just don't determine the best team. After 162 games it's still somewhat up for debate, why it would become way more clear after a very short series doesn't really make sense to me.

[Victor]

kyleb you completely ignore bullpen.