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[knappis]

[ QUOTE ]

knappis, you are much closer to the truth. First, you had some problem entering the numbers into calculator or something. The expression calculates to 1/12,650 [lol, I had problems too]. The odds are much less severe than this, of course. One factor is you need to figure out a fair way to deal with the fact that we don't know if there were other hands where Potripper did vpip while a JJ+ hand was out there. Another factor is that the JJ+ range was chosen on the basis of examining the data. Then there is the data selection bias problem.

Your approach is not perfect, but at least it is trying to compare the probability of events with and without knowledge of hole cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. My mistake. It was pretty late and I was tired [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img].

The correct calculation is as follows:

(4/25)*(3/24)*(2/23)*(1/22) = 1:12650

If we also factor in the likelihood that folding 4 hands of 25 is part of villains distribution of bet/fold patterns we would know the odds of this to happen by chance. The problem is that we don't kow his distribution of bet/fold patterns but I would say the likelihood is probably pretty high, maybe 33%ish. That would give odds in the 50k range indicating that similar "coincidences" probably happens every day in online poker.