Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[Wolfskin]

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Thanks for the update. There is a big problem though with your approach that you might not have thought about.

Your are trying to estimate a persons win rate from a small sample of hand where he obviously runs extremely hot. This means that the cards did not fall in a very representative manner and your confidence interval is only valid when you hit your cards that good.

I suggest that you use another approach instead. Say that this person has a negative expected winning of -20ptbb/100 with a SD of 270ptbb. What are the probability that such a player makes 284ptbb/100 in 190 hands? And when you have that probability, try to estimate the probability that such person could be found in the poker community's collective PT-.DBase for High stakes poker.

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Did the math already yourself right? I just won't provide a probability with your assumptions, they aren't realistic.

I included an outlier in my calculation, which I should not have and 1000bb/67 hands don't mean you have that over 100 hands, so the standard deviation is more like 70 and not 270.

We also can't use a -20bb/100 mean, because the sample size we are using includes approximately 500 hands, so we must use a 400bb/100 mean.

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That cannot bet true with a SD of 270ptbb/100 I'm sure. Your other calculations suggest a much larger CI.

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Yeah you are right, this is for a STD of 65 for a winning loose aggressive player on pokerstars.