BR Management and You (NLTRN)

[dboy23]

btw if anyone tries option 3 let me know how you manage.

[alavet]

please let me know what poer room are you using with sthat strategy

[daveT]

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btw if anyone tries option 3 let me know how you manage.

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guilty.

will post more, otherwise see the whiny crap I am posting in low content.

yes the 15 downswing happened. ouch!

Variance definitely plays a huge role in this. I am about 63% at the fives, but I am running bad at the 10's, 11's, and 20's. The roll goes up, and what goes up must come down. I don't think it is all that effective over-all.

The reason is that once you have a decent rush, you are jumping up, and variance seems to dictate that a losing streak will happen near after.

I think I am going to change over to option #2.

ciao.

[Kalledrengen]

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please let me know what poer room are you using with sthat strategy

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It dosen't really matter what poker room you are using. You can use these bankroll guidelines no matter what site you play on [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Full Tilt Poker and Poker Stars are two poker rooms I know of (I'm sure there are many others) that offers HU SNG's with only 5% rake instead of 10%.

Hope that answered your question somehow ^^

[ChicagoRy]

One thing to note is the variance of different structures.

For example, you should have less variance in a regular speed HUSNG compared to a turbo on stars.

On FTP you should probably have a bit more variance in their turbos compared to PS turbos because the structure is faster.

Also note that several factors can negate this, such as you being really really good at fast games but being really bad at regular speeds. It's fairly rare to have a higher or near the same ROI in a turbo as in a regular speed, but it happens.

[Scansion]

Can you move down? Can you stick to your plan and drop down if you start losing? If you are able to do this then you're able to operate with a much smaller bankroll.

[daveT]

Yes, moving up and down is def a part of options two and three. After 250 games of doing #3, I am finding that option it is to unstable to realistically expect to move up.

Also, what CR said.

Even if variance is not wider, and you can maintain a 30%+ ROI up through $50 SNGs, the hit of 7 losses is devastating to the bankroll. I find I run into this patch about once every 30 games or so. Example. At 100, I lose 50, have to drop down to the fives. Lose two more, now stuck with 40. It is going to take me more than 7 games to return to 100. The problem is that once I return to 100, I am supposed to play at 20. Add another 7 BR insta-drop, and I am back at where I started, and maybe even lower. Not good for the mentality. It was an interesting experiment. Maybe someone who is able to crush the 100's would have better success at this than I am having.

The odd thing about poker is that the adventurous ones never get to move up, and the patient ones move up faster. I am unfortunately, an adventurous type, so #3 fits my personality perfectly. The poker gods don't care about personality types.

On to option #2.

[PrimordialAA]

ummm... plz show me some stats of someone holding a 30%+ ROI at the 33s over like... 300-500 matches, I would be very impressed [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[daveT]

That's exactly to problem AA. (i DO see the smiley)

That option #3 fails because you cannot maintain that ROI all through the levels. More specifically, If you can have that ROI at a smaller stake, you will not be guaranteed that ROI two levels up. So #3 falls flat on it's face for that reason. Note, that the OP does point out that you need to maintain a 63% WR for the whole thing to be effective.

[TNixon]

You don't have to maintain a 63% WR for an aggressive bankroll strategy to be effective.

58% is enough that you're leaving tons of money on the table if you wait too long to move up, and high enough that there's a fairly low risk of ruin even playing as little as 7 buyins. (I think 5 is too low unless you're *positive* that you're a solid winner at the level)

Option 3 doesn't fail because you can't maintain 30% ROI. It doesn't fail at all, unless you very quickly hit a buyin level where you're not actually a winning player, and I don't really view that as failure, since you get more games in at that level more quickly with the more agressive strategy. It just leaves you moving up and down a lot more than the other options.

But no matter what your winrate is, waiting for too many buyins before moving up is leaving *tons* of value on the table. Of course, lower winrates will leave you with a bigger risk of ruin, but you really don't need 63% to be safe. Well, maybe you do need 63% to play 5 buyins, but 58% is good enough for 7-8.