New Tysen Streib Book: Kill Everyone

[Shandrax]

Made hand vs. draw is where my example comes from. Actually I got the whole theory from Nesmith Ankenys book about draw poker. The problem for me always was the application of these basic concepts in Hold'em.

I give you an example for a 2:1 situation for a potsize raise where you need to win 33% to break even. Let's assume you start with unpaired cards. The chances that you have a made hand by the river are in the 60% range. That means in 40% of the cases you got nothing and can fold to a river bet right off the bat. In the other 60% of the cases, you may have bottom pair with maybe 2 high cards on board or other scary situations. Still from these 60% of your hands you need to win 55% just to break even, simply because you folded 40% of your hands already. Your remaing made hands are the ones where your wins have to come from and 33% as indicated above won't be enough. This is why I have a problem with the common assumption that you need to win just enough to cover the potodds with your made hand to do fine.

Many times both players don't have a hand and you cannot just give up in these situations only because your opponent has the courage to bet. With not giving up I don't mean to call him with trash, but to lower your standards for calling with made hands to compensate for it. It may sound paradox, or maybe I am simply wrong.