Live FT, big stack (relatively), bubble

[4CardStraight]

Nice play then.

Villain is not a very good player then. If he raises 12000 from (giving him the benefit of the doubt) 30000 stack, he has 18000 behind. With 9000 blinds, and your push, He needs to call 18000 to win 69000 or way better than 3 to 1 odds. He needs to have 26% equity in the pot to make a call, and anything he raised against any reasonable range will have that. If we try to adjust for ICM, since we are on a cash bubble, we might give his chips a 20% premium or something, so he would need 32 or 33% equity in the pot to make a call, but again anything he raises against any reasonable range we put you on should call.

Say we egregiously raised a hand like 33 or K9o or 98s. If we put you on a top 6% hand : He should call with any of these, using straight equity, or even if we give his chips a premium using ICM in some fashion.

So, net of it... We should remember this player. We should make mental notes that they are a high blind speculator, that minraise means weak, and that they often fold even when getting proper pot odds to call. All 3 of those are serious mistakes that we can exploit later.

NH

4Card