help on proving poker is not about luck

[ycjason]

no one here knows how to create those graphs??

I thought the first graph could be created using a formula similar to the Risk of Ruin calculation? can anyone who's familiar with that calculation give me some suggestions? thanks!

[DiamondDog]

[ QUOTE ]
ROULETTE AND CRAPS ARE GAMES OF SKILL TOO!

[/ QUOTE ]

Er, how many professional roulette players can you name?
(Who aren't casino owners, I mean.)

[T50_Omaha8]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
ROULETTE AND CRAPS ARE GAMES OF SKILL TOO!

[/ QUOTE ]

Er, how many professional roulette players can you name?
(Who aren't casino owners, I mean.)

[/ QUOTE ]Lots of books = game of skill, obv

Refer to above post

[6471849653]

You need to present the known formulas that show that if you play this many hands the probability of you winning if you are this or that much a better player than your opponents on average is X. That will prove that the luck factor is more or less not dominating.

The other thing you need to prove is that there's enough skill in poker. You need to present the skill factors and show that they are significant, also proving that the opponents on average (weighted average) are that much worse than you are.

Presenting your PT stats helps.

If the one who you are trying to prove it to has no brain, you will fail. If the other has a brain, there is more or less a possibility that he would already understand.

[DiamondDog]

[ QUOTE ]

Quote:

Quote:
ROULETTE AND CRAPS ARE GAMES OF SKILL TOO!



Er, how many professional roulette players can you name?
(Who aren't casino owners, I mean.)

Lots of books = game of skill, obv

Refer to above post

[/ QUOTE ]

There are lots of books about how to win the lottery. Hardly makes it a game of skill. Just means there are plenty of fish willing to believe that buying a book makes winning more probable.

[TomTom]

Searching Amazon.com, books only:


Poker: 56,187 Results

Craps: 48,917 Results

ROULETTE: 19,233 Results

Blackjack: 11,581 Results

Lotto: 8,078 Results




POKER WINS

[donkeyradish]

In a game of poker you have to make one or sometimes as many as seven decisions, each of which gives you choices (bet, raise, call or fold). In some games the bet amounts varies as well.

So lets take the assertion "Poker is all about luck" and put it to the test.

This means, that you can make ALL of these decisions randomly and be guaranteed to have exactly the same win rate as someone who actually thinks about what they are doing. You could raise with every hand to the river. Or fold every hand before the flop. All with equal success.

This is true of picking numbers for the lottery, and its true about roulette too (with 1 tiny exception).

You dont need a graph to prove its not true about poker.

[RobMcB]

ycjason, while a graph is a nice idea, it fails to actually demonstrate to your friend exactly how the luck factor can be overcome by skilled play.
If your friend is sophisticated enough to look at a PT graph and actually grasp it's meaning, he's sophisticated enough to understand a verbal explanation of how luck can be overcome in poker.
Explain to him that every action yields a certain Expected Value, or EV. A skilled player will constantly make decisions with Positive EV, or +EV. With each additional +EV decision a player makes, his potential earnings increase. After a large enough sample of +EV decisions have been executed, the probability of having lost money becomes infinitesmally small.
If your friend cannot grasp this verbal explanation, no graph is going to help him.
Also ycjason, I would say that the majority of random people you meet on the street are incapable of grasping this kind of logic, so don't get your hopes up too high of 'converting' your friend into an EV believer.

[rigmarole]

I would have to aggree with Donkeyradish, what you are trying to express would not easily fit into a graph, hell probably could be a book in and of itself and not cover all the necessary topics, as there are many factors that equate into the skill level of a player.

Discipline in their play, from hole card to selection, to sticking with the correct calls, even though they are itching to gamble.

Understanding of the game, gambling theory, odds and statistics, not to mention experience. Then there are understanding of other topics, psychology, metagame, reading peoples actions etc

And last but not least the application of all the above on the felt, you can know all the above but if you are lacking certain ingrediants, luck becomes more and more of a factor.

Finally, do not be fooled or allow the person that you are trying to provide this to be fooled. Poker IS a game of chance, hence the reason why it is called gambling, but when you have experience and skill on your side overall luck becomes a lesser factor in win rate over time.

[PantsOnFire]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to create a graph to show to a friend to prove that poker is not about luck in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I'm your friend I say, "Well aren't you lucky, you can afford to buy me a beer."

I think the "making a living" aspect is a pretty good arguement. Nobody makes a living at craps, slots or roulette. Some can make a living at blackjack. They can do this through card counting and book strategy, which is a skill.

It should actually be a simple as explaining that poker players make decisions. If your friend believes that everybody receives the same amount of luck, then you could explain that better decisions will result in that player's good luck earning more money and his bad luck losing less money (than the bad decision maker).

If he still doesn't believe you, then by all means invite him to the casino and wish him luck.