Setting odds for poker tournament

[arbuthnot]

I'm trying to set some odds on players in a friendly, low-stakes NLHE tournament. We don't expect more than 20 players and most of them are regulars to our weekly cash game.

We've had a few tournaments before like this, so some previous performance exists.

I guess I'm more interested in the process that one would go though in order to set lines in a case like this.

If it's a very complicated process involving lots and lots of research, then what are some quick rules of thumb for making more accurate guesses?

[rufus]

I'm not sure it's a good idea to let people gamble on something they can control.

What kind of data do you have?

[arbuthnot]

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I'm not sure it's a good idea to let people gamble on something they can control.

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It's very unlikely that any action will be booked. This is more of a mental exercise, meta-game thing.

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What kind of data do you have?

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I don't have any on me. But I do remember relative finishes of most of the players in the last few events.

[filsteal]

Unless the structure is very deep and/or many of the players are very bad, then in a 20-player tournament, I think it's very unlikely that even the best player would have a 1/10 chance to win.

[jay_shark]

No player is good enough to win 1/10 in a 20 player tournament with moderate stack sizes and 10-15 minute blind level changes .

As for as i'm concerned , no player has a 50% success rate of itm finishes in a 9 player sng . I've played many of these and it's very difficult to achieve a ROI of more than 30% even against weak opposition .