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Old 08-16-2007, 04:35 PM
helter skelter helter skelter is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 267
Default Re: Two hands Late in a 1 dollar tournament

Hand #1

I don't know if it is the right play or not, but I would have slowplayed the flop just like you did. Probably I would have bet more on the turn because it's starting to look drawy and would have re-raised allin for that same reason. Maybe he'll fold a hand that could outdraw me. As played, I'm checking the river. He may be scared into cking a better hand and I can get to showdown without getting crippled, but I grit my teeth and call when he bets.

Hand #2

This is I think the range you were asking about

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.186% 44.50% 00.69% 6407046 98925.00 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 54.814% 54.13% 00.69% 7793356 98926.50 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+


If I use the slider to select top 10.3 % of hands, it gives me this range and the equity is roughly the same

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.332% 44.76% 00.58% 4834050 62344.50 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 54.668% 54.09% 00.58% 5842470 62345.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


You have to move the slider down alot further for it to include 66, so I guess that is considered a marginal hand.


It seems his range SHOULD be at least top 10% , 7 handed in that position, but how people actually play may be different.

I plugged one of these in a worksheet, since they are roughtly the same, and it showed -1.6% chip ev


Next, I tried this range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.908% 51.24% 00.67% 9545201 124141.50 { 8h8s }
Hand 1: 48.092% 47.43% 00.67% 8834488 124142.00 { 22+, AJs+, KQs, AJo+ }


Calling here would clearly would be + chip ev, but this got me to fool around with the ICM calculator to see if it would be + $ ev. You can only plug in the top 3 prizes but I wanted to try using it to get a rough idea of how the skewing changes things.

When I plug in the player stacks and a prize pool representing the skewing with 50% of the remaining prize pool going to 1st, 30% to 2nd and 20% to 3rd, it shows that calling would be a mistake even for this range. It would be -1% $ ev after all the calculations. So, overall, it suggests that calling should be tigher on the final table for a given range. Using ICM like this could be wrong, however, so maybe others can comment on final table play.
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