NBA fixing: biggest American sports story in recent memory?

[shemp]

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Expansion to Vegas is a business decision analyzed on its ability to make owners money.

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No way. It's ALL about gambling and perception.

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My point is that your claim and mine are not incompatible. What you are saying, in such a framework, is that it is a bad business decision.

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Well, I think that they think it's a bad business decision. I just happen to think that they couldn't be further from the truth, and in fact, especially for the NFL, it would be a huge benefit.

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You play black jack though, right?

[Clarkmeister]

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You play black jack though, right?

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Right over my head.

[shemp]

I was trying to be funny. By your response I'm gonna go with "miss."

[Clarkmeister]

The other interesting thing will be to see how ESPN covers this, and with what intensity. This type of story is where their relationship with the league really IMO is likely to influence their coverage decisions.

[tuq]

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I don't understand the counter argument or if you are even advancing one. Do you think that an owner who thought expansion in Vegas would increase the value of his own franchise would be against expansion?

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That's kind of playing both ends against the middle IMO. First off, how would his franchise's value perceptibly increase by a team in Vegas? Secondly, although this stuff is researched to death by the NBA before the trigger is pulled, I can't figure out how most teams are significantly affected by expansion. Unlike college games, they don't get part of the road gate that I am aware of.

I can't see a major sports team in Vegas in the near future, but it's inevitable. Along with Phoenix it's the fastest-growing metropolitan area in the country, when they start pushing 2-3+ million people the lure of that fan base will be greater than whatever false image issues the league may face. For the near term however, I could see it being too hot of a potato, and this ref thing could even set it back a few years.

[shemp]

Para 1. What increases the value of the league tends to increase the value of my share, all other things held equal.

Para 2. You are describing folks that are risk adverse, and once the upside reaches a certain point with a certain certainty they will pull the trigger-- possibly forgoing earnings until that point...

I'm not taking a side because I simply don't know. I'd be commissioning studies independently and asking the league to do same. I probably wouldn't make this one on my gut or a straightforward demographics calculus.

[tuq]

shemp,

Well, I'm mostly typing out of my ass because I don't know and don't really care that much - Phoenix has the three major sports + NHL. Well, if you count the Cardinals. But there's no way that the major leagues can indefinitely fend off the lure of a city growing as fast as anywhere. Money talks and they'll trot out all those 99% figures when they finally pull the trigger.

Also, I see where you're going with point number one, but I just didn't know that expansion teams measurably improve all the other teams' value and not just the league itself (TV contracts, ratings, gate, etc.).

[Oski]

I think this will be proven to be the tip of the iceberg. I can't believe that just one ref would be involved ... those guys can't seem to keep anything to themselves (remember the airline ticket scandal?).

Anyhow, European soccer seems to have a scandal like this every so often. The scope of the Italian scandal uncovered in 2006 was staggering. However, it is amazing how soon they seem to have put it behind them and moved on.

Of course, I am now treading into a socialogical argument, where perhaps the Italian (specifically) and the European (generally) culture seems to accept it as a part of the game, and "oh well" they just got caught. I don't know. I don't know how Serie A recovered so gracefully.

I do think, for a myriad of reasons, however, that this one won't just go away. I do think Americans have a different way of looking at their sports (for better or worse). This will probably cut right through the "integrity" of the game, and many fans may choose to pass on the NBA. Time will tell, but I don't think its going to turn out well.

[Fallen Hero]

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I do think Americans have a different way of looking at their sports

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this is freaking hilarious

[Aloysius]

I'm only really getting caught up on this right now... lot to digest. My buddy jokingly suggested we mount a class-action suit against the NBA (we're both season ticket holders and have been for a while). Haha who knows, maybe it will come to that. Sounds like this coming week will be very revealing, especially if Donaghy names names. So yeah, hard to judge how big this story is til we get more facts.

This is from Sheridan's recent blog post:

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1. How big is this scandal?

The New York Daily News reported Sunday that federal authorities believe Donaghy will cooperate with investigators and possibly name other officials or players involved in the scandal. Stern has already come out publicly and said that Donaghy was the one and only referee under suspicion of affecting the outcome of games he officiated, but if the opposite is true and even more referees are involved, Stern's credibility will take another enormous hit. The Daily News said Donaghy has hired former federal prosecutor John Lauro, who specializes in representing whistleblowers, as his defense attorney.

2. When was the NBA informed that Donaghy was under investigation by the FBI?

The Denver Post reported Sunday that the answer to that question is January, which, if true, would mean the NBA allowed Donaghy to continue refereeing games, including playoff games, despite knowing he might be crooked. Who in the league office signed off on that?

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Also:

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Also, The Post reported that NBA officials knew that Donaghy was gambling on football and ordered him to stop.

Further, the New York Times reported Sunday that Donaghy refereed in 11 games after Jan. 1, 2007, in which the consensus Las Vegas line moved 2 points or more. The team on which bettors wagered heavily enough to move the line that far won 7 of those 11 games. On Jan. 15, the Philadelphia 76ers were originally favored to beat the Toronto Raptors by a point. Bets came in so heavily on the Raptors that they eventually were favored to win by a point instead. The Raptors won in a blowout, 104-86. Two nights later, so much money was bet on the Phoenix Suns against the Houston Rockets that the consensus Las Vegas line, which opened at the Suns favored by 4 ½ points, moved to 8 by tip-off. The Suns won by 9, 100-91.

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Seriously wtf? There's institutional incompetence I get that, but if the above is true this is way beyond that.

-Al