QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK

[FineStyle]

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O.K.. I have 8 outs, any 8 or K on the flop. 8 outs of 47 unseen cards = 1:4.8 or 20,5%. On the turn I may discount the hearts, but I believe any FD should be out here. With a discount its 6 out out of 46 = 1:6.6 or 15%, with all 8 outs it 1:4.7 or 21%. So overall its 35 or 40%.

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Ok, first problem, you're converting your odds to percentages wrong. The percentage of hitting on the next card is simply outs/unseen cards, so 17% flop->turn. You calculate odds by dividing unseen cards/outs and subtracting 1. What you did was did 1/(unseen cards/outs - 1). Second problem, don't worry about backdoor flush draws until one comes up, so don't worry about discounting anything. Third problem, don't calculate the % you'll hit flop->turn and the % you'll hit turn->river and add them together. Rather, do the chance that you WON'T hit on the turn AND river and subtract that from 1 (100%), thusly:

1 - ((39/47) * (38/46)) = .314523 or 31%.

And, the reason that you calculate flop->river instead of just drawing one is that the pot is big enough you know that even if you miss on the turn you'll still be getting at least 6:1 to call to the river. i.e. you know you'll be going to the river, regardless.

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I calculated the odd like that. I just converted it to percentage, which of course is not worthwile while sitting at the table.

Thanx for correcting my error on the combined probability.