QJo BB flops OESD, turn gives TPGK

[FineStyle]

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From FineStyle:

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I guess you have about 40% chance that the nut str8 comes on the river

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I presume you mean flop->river, i.e. when you're deciding what to do on the flop, the chance it will hit on the turn or river. You're wrong. Figure it out, and show your work.


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O.K.. I have 8 outs, any 8 or K on the flop. 8 outs of 47 unseen cards = 1:4.8 or 20,5%. On the turn I may discount the hearts, but I believe any FD should be out here. With a discount its 6 out out of 46 = 1:6.6 or 15%, with all 8 outs it 1:4.7 or 21%. So overall its 35 or 40%.
If you fear that pf raiser will reraise, o.k. But don't we have even enough odds to call that? Assuming 2 will call that, than there will be 14 SB in the pot (exluding your bets, thats enough for a total bet of 3 SB on the flop.
Please correct me if I'm totally wrong here.