15/30 live

[tribefan9]

This looks to me like one of those hands where it might play out a bit differently live than it will online. I think online this is a pretty standard raise on the river. In live play, unless you pick up some sort of tell that the bb might be weak, I really like the line.

Given your description of the opponent, it does not seem like he will be putting in this much action if he did not hit the flop fairly hard. When he checkraises the flop I would narrow the range to a straight, straight draw (prob the high end), two pair, or a pair with an ace. He will bet the turn with all of these hands since he can now also represent an ace if he still only has a draw. Once you call the turn you really handcuff him if he has a draw. Since you were the preflop aggressor, he is going to think the ace hit you and that you will not fold. In a live game, I don't think he will fire the last barrel with a counterfeit two pair or a busted draw, so there is very little reason to raise, especially since the raise is only profitable if we can get a losing hand to call.

Keep in mind that we are not only trying to figure out what he has, we need to keep in mind what our actions are telling our opponent.

I think raising the turn is a bit spewy based on the strength of our hand against his range and the bad spot that getting three-bet will put us in.