WA/WB with second pair good kicker?

[Nick D]

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Is it just me who is stupid but I can't see more than 5 outs on that flop. Is it our backdoor straight that makes it 6.5 outs, to go. If it's that many then it's a raise.

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That is probably the case. BD draws are typically valued at 1.5 outs.

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Mustn't we discount based on the fact that we can't get the upper end of the BDSD? It is a gapless BDSD, which would normally yield 1.5 outs on the flop, but that is normally for a TJQ where we could get either the KA or 89 to complete, am I right?

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I think since villain didn't raise preflop we are ahead here a lot.

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Bona, he has a 0 PFR... OP - how many hands are these stats compiled from? Either way, while I don't disagree that we could be ahead in the hand, his PF play cannot tell us much about his hand.

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I might raise the flop, if he calls, ck through the turn to get to SD and you can fold to a bet on the river I think, unless you improve.

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Ultimately, I agree with this. You could call down as well if you've seen a few of his holdings (he'll bet down w/ MPWK), but this way you save 1.5BB and folding is a viable option considering the pot isn't huge or anything.

[jeanbaptiste36]

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Our villain is certainly very passive so his lead doesn't look good at all. So passive you might already be behind two pair or better. I might raise the flop, if he calls, ck through the turn to get to SD and you can fold to a bet on the river I think, unless you improve.

That's one avenue at least. Once my raise is called on the flop, I'd say I'm beaten and I'm not putting another bet in UI.

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Is it a raise for information?

[Nick D]

Both a raise for information AND for a free card. Also (very unlikely) he may always give up the hand. You shouldn't raise very often in small limits to get information because it can become costly.
What I mean is, not just for information ALONE. Here we have a decent hand, a chance at a free card play, and a small chance a raise may get him to fold (too miniscule if you ask me, but still possible). These are good enough reasons for me to raise here.

[Befolder]

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Our villain is certainly very passive so his lead doesn't look good at all. So passive you might already be behind two pair or better. I might raise the flop, if he calls, ck through the turn to get to SD and you can fold to a bet on the river I think, unless you improve.

That's one avenue at least. Once my raise is called on the flop, I'd say I'm beaten and I'm not putting another bet in UI.

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Is it a raise for information?

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The vets typically hate that idea, so in this case we are raising to save ourselves more money that if we just called down I guess. If our villain just calls or 3 bets, we can stop putting money in now.

Although that might get crapped on because a passive will stop betting for lots of reasons. They're quick to shut down unless they've got a big hand. I wouldn't want to call a river bet too often after checking through the turn though after the flop raise.

[jeanbaptiste36]

They will resurrect the ghost of Ed Miller to keep noobs like me in line [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] but here a raise for information is a more valid way of thinking about it. We have second pair. If he continues after a raise, then we are dead if he's passive. Is it not toppairs where things get difficult with raises for information?

[bozlax]

Not WA/WB. You have too many outs if behind, and the chances that you're ahead on the flop are almost zero, assuming:

1) your stat-read on this guy is over more than about 75 hands; and
B) you haven't actually SEEN him donkbet an ace high flop without TP or better.

So, the question becomes, do you have enough to PLAY the flop, not whether you're raising or calling. And, you don't. You need better than 7 outs to make the call getting 6:1, and you're not even close (you have to discount your two-pair/trips outs because, for this guy to donkbet you're likely already behind to aces-up or a set).

And, fwiw, to anybody who says "raise because (insert some random reason here)", that's dumb. Against this guy, all your raise is going to do is drive him underground but it will never win you the hand, and it only saves you half a bet to showdown. If you're compelled to show it down for some reason, just calldown, but there's no shame in just letting it go on the flop.

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wow ... some passive idiot bets into you on that board and you want to call down in a tiny little pot ...

even if he's donking this hand with a Queen or a straight draw that doesn't mean he's not doing it with an ace the majority of the time ... and in such a small pot you're not getting the odds to go to showdown (which is less than 2:1 ... after rake)

you'll need a pretty solid read that you can call down ... and you don't have it

[Nick D]

So all in all you guys are saying a raise here is crazy and we should fold?

I guess that's pretty clear. Lol. I guess I never really thought of folding (LEEEEAAK!!) [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[TarHeel100]

If you are only going to post stats with no reads, then it's even more important that you show us how many hands that is over. 0.0 preflop raise over 20 hands means something entirely different than 0.0 over 300 hands.

Absent any reads, I probably drop it on the turn if you have a big sample size on Villain. Postflop aggro of 0.6 don't typically fire twice without at least top pair.

[jeanbaptiste36]

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Not WA/WB. You have too many outs if behind, and the chances that you're ahead on the flop are almost zero, assuming:

1) your stat-read on this guy is over more than about 75 hands; and
B) you haven't actually SEEN him donkbet an ace high flop without TP or better.

So, the question becomes, do you have enough to PLAY the flop, not whether you're raising or calling. And, you don't. You need better than 7 outs to make the call getting 6:1, and you're not even close (you have to discount your two-pair/trips outs because, for this guy to donkbet you're likely already behind to aces-up or a set).

And, fwiw, to anybody who says "raise because (insert some random reason here)", that's dumb. Against this guy, all your raise is going to do is drive him underground but it will never win you the hand, and it only saves you half a bet to showdown. If you're compelled to show it down for some reason, just calldown, but there's no shame in just letting it go on the flop.

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Ty for explaining it to me. I won't ever say the words: "raise for information" ever again [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] You are right with an AG below 0.7 there is usually an toppair or worse here.