last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push

[El Stuntman]

thanks soulman, excellent stuff!

it's almost identical to what a friend of mine came up with below:

OK - I ran the numbers on this one:

Assuming the SB pushes with a random hand (as he should), according to PokerStove, 22 has .503 equity. There are 3 possible outcomes and the $EV results according to the ICM calculator at http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php:


Code:
Action Stack $EV
-----------------------------------------------
Hero Folds 70K $2756.78
Hero Calls and loses 0 $1645.00
Hero Calls and wins 160K $3965.82
$EV(call) = (p(win) * EV(win)) + (p(lose) * EV(lose))
= .503($3965.82) + (1-0.503)($1645)
= $1994.81 + $817.57
= $2812.38

For an $EV gain from calling of $2812.38 – $2756.78 = $55.60

If your opponent has to have some standards for the jam, say 22+, Ax, Kx, QT, JT (37.3% of hands), 22’s equity against this range drops to .473. Doing the same calculations gives a $EV of calling of $2742.75 for a loss of $14.04.

So the bottom line here is that it’s so close that it’s nearly EV neutral and it doesn’t really matter what you do!