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#1
07-04-2007, 05:45 AM
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last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push
Hi all,
would appreciate opinions on the below MTT situation: 20k tournie guaranteed on iPoker last night I am down to last 4 payouts as follows: 1st $6,345 2nd $4,230 3rd $2,115 4th $1,645 I have ~80k and am on the BB SB has similar other two have largeish stacks (250k and and 170k). blinds are 5k/10k (10 mins left in the level) and it has degenerated into a total push-fest two big stacks fold and SB shoves. I look down at 22. Do I call??? I am getting varying opinions. 
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#2
07-04-2007, 05:48 AM
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Re: last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push
no way, theres no point. Unless the guy has a 2 in his hand you are 50/50 at best. Possibily dominated with an overpair. you might seem like your getting beaten around, but you can wait for a better time.
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#3
07-04-2007, 06:05 AM
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Re: last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push
point taken...but will there be a better time with only 7BBs left and 4-handed?
if I put his range as any ace, any king, possibly any queen and any suited connectors plus maybe a 10% chance of an overpair, is the call not +EV based on the 10k already in there?
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#4
07-04-2007, 06:10 AM
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Re: last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push
this might be very marginally +EV on this hand, but you've got to consider oppurtunity cost. If you fold you are going to have better oppurtunities to get you stack all in which have much greater +EV. In fact I'd rather be first in with ATC than call this here.
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#6
07-04-2007, 06:18 AM
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Re: last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push
Good question. I don't know. I'd probably fold. I generally don't think that people call enough in these situations and overrate FE (I'd rather be the first in etc.) but I'd still probably fold here.
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#8
07-04-2007, 06:30 AM
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Re: last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push
[ QUOTE ]
also, by folding there is a chance one of the others gets out before you go all in again, which alone is $500 [/ QUOTE ] the extra $500 is pretty irrelevant tbh I'd like to get some workings on whether this is +EV and CEV based on the range I've assigned villain. My gut said 50/50 with 10k invested i.e. calling 70 to win 90 which made it a call I'm primarily a cash player (usually only play live tournies) so would be interested to see if anyone could help me out on the maths
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#9
07-04-2007, 06:34 AM
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Re: last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] also, by folding there is a chance one of the others gets out before you go all in again, which alone is $500 [/ QUOTE ] the extra $500 is pretty irrelevant tbh... I'm primarily a cash player .... [/ QUOTE ] At this stage in the tourney you MUST be thinking about payouts, +EV in chips can very easily be -EV in dollers.
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#10
07-04-2007, 06:46 AM
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Re: last 4 in 20k tournament, facing push
[ QUOTE ]
At this stage in the tourney you MUST be thinking about payouts, +EV in chips can very easily be -EV in dollers. [/ QUOTE ] lol, sorry I didn't want to give the impression I was some kind of eccentric millionaire who didn't care about money! of course I cared about the money, my thinking was: 1. I need a double up, pronto 2. If I call and win, SB is eliminated. I will have 160k and a very good shot at taking the whole thing down. 3. We are so shallow that I genuinely may not find a better spot before my stack is decimated further 4. I believe I am in a 50/50 spot and am thus priced in favourably by my BB. it's a very interesting spot - razor thin imo. I posted it on my usual poker forum and the responses were divided. The feedback here is also interesting in that no-one has said call yet. I'm happy to be called a donkey for calling!
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