Awkward hand means awkward river

[Aaron W.]

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Calling a bet here with any pair, two pair or trips is really weak. In this spot you are only about 5% to catch a bluff. Not enough to call multiway. OK there are a lot of weak players out calling this. I know it and i like it. The nice thing is, there are a lot of players out there in these limits betting into your flush too. Weak play.

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Define "weak".

[Shillx]

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lol @ looking to fold

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Calling a raise and a reraise is a huge leak imo. Hell I'm sick about it all against just a single raise. Flush over flush (using both cards) is quite common. About 24% of the time if all suited hands see the flop. And people love suited hands at these limits so I wouldn't expect the number to be too much lower.

[Zeldark]

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We're gonna lose to a better flush a good % of the time that we're raised.. That said I would still bet.

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They'll call with lots (and lots) of lesser hands.

[pokerkasper]

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Define "weak".

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negative expected value

[f97tosc]

Anyone betting the flop for value here?

[KitCloudkicker]

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Anyone betting the flop for value here?

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no way, the likelihood of an EP raise is too high which would cut down on our odds.

it also is a bad thing if an EP raise would drive out a gutshot that hits while we make our flush. e.g. a great card might be the Js.

[Aaron W.]

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Define "weak".

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negative expected value

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...

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The nice thing is, there are a lot of players out there in these limits betting into your flush too. Weak play.

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Value betting with a strong non-flush hand when checked to on the river flush card is a +EV play because you get paid off by a whole lot of worse hands which more than makes up for the times you lose to a flush. Most of the players calling along will pay off one more bet to see your hand. Checking is "weak" relative to value betting.

[pokerkasper]

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Value betting with a strong non-flush hand when checked to on the river flush card is a +EV play because you get paid off by a whole lot of worse hands which more than makes up for the times you lose to a flush. Most of the players calling along will pay off one more bet to see your hand. Checking is "weak" relative to value betting.

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i know. nothing new.

it works in higher limits. but on these limits here with 5+ players on the river, in 95% you meet the flush for sure. In lower limits players tend to play suited cards more often and to hang around with them than in medium or higher limits for which value-betting on the river has been originally designed. So you need about 10% pot equity to justify a bet in exactly this spot here. You have only 5%, perhaps less. If you bet despite this for value your +EV exist only in your holdem books and the -EV in your real poker life.

[f97tosc]

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Anyone betting the flop for value here?

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no way, the likelihood of an EP raise is too high which would cut down on our odds.

it also is a bad thing if an EP raise would drive out a gutshot that hits while we make our flush. e.g. a great card might be the Js.



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I see your point.

Although as always it depends a bit on the other players. If you are playing with a bunch of passive calling stations who rarely raise but always call then this is less of a concern. A 0.25/0.50 game with 6 out of 8 players on the flop sounds pretty fishy but obviously that is just one data point.

[Xhad]

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it works in higher limits. but on these limits here with 5+ players on the river, in 95% you meet the flush for sure.

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If people are bad enough to call with 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] preflop then they are bad enough to get here with a lot of things that are not flushes and then pay off with them. You're very backwards in your thinking here.