WSOP $3k Decision vs. Howard Lederer

[Mr.Poker]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think pushing here is really spewy. Would you push with AA, KK, even QQ, I doubt it, maybe 4 bet or flat call.

Pushing feels like a massive overbet and something i think HL will see through pretty easily.



[/ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't you push QQ-AA, particularly if HL will see through it?

[/ QUOTE ]

True. Slightly away from the point though. We have A10, and if HL will see through it, why would we push as a 2-1 dog?

Obviously, this puts HL on a pretty tight range, and if we do put him on this range, we should just fold PF. If it is wider though, I think I still prefer to take lower variance route here and call.

Also, while pushing may be +EV, i think calling could be more +EV and also have less variance.

[NYWalker]

I think against an Internet player, shove or call (shove flop c-bet) is good. But against a live solid player, fold is fine (we just put in 900 and we assume he rr with AJ/TT+).

However, we don't know HL came from steal/resteal or played his hand for value. IMO, it's safe to fold here and find out more from his plays before making a move.

Fold this hand but raise again at CO the very next time when fold to you.

[MUD]

Basically the situation is really good for HL for a resteal, as evidenced by nearly every option seeming awkward for us. Think about us having an even stronger hand like 99, it seems like a hard decision even then.

One thing I failed to note was that we were the 2 chipleaders at the table. So the combination of the awkward stacks, him pulling almost even with me, and him taking a stand to slow me down, make this a nearly perfect restealing opportunity for him.

However this assumes he gives me credit for understanding the situation myself (on the 1st level, but not on the 2nd level). Do you guys think he reads the average mid 20s player with a decent stack to understand that we are in a tough spot?

Thoughts?

[Annulus]

i don't see the need to make a play here. we have only been at the table for 3 orbits, so HL and hero have no real history/info. on each other. seems like we are in good shape and no need to get fancy here. i would give HL the benefit of doubt and fold here. why are we so bent on a taking a stand and not letting HL push us around?

[betgo]

Didn't HL write a chapter on leverage in the Full Tilt Guide. Leverage is making a bet with the threat of future bets and it seems to apply to his reraise.

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Run them versus any range in PokerStove. ATs is about equal to KJs and way ahead of 75s. ATs=KJs > ATo=KJo.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, you are giving yourself too much credit if you think that the difference in equity is what determines your decision here.

Equity vs AK, TT+
ATs = 30.2%
KJs = 29.9%
QJs = 31.8%
75s = 27.5%

Equity vs AQ+, 99+
ATs = 32.1%
KJs = 34.6%
QJs = 33.3%
75s = 29.5%


If we have a profitable push, he is going to be folding at least 2 x as often as he will be calling. So, you are actually saying that when we make a decision on whether or not to push, you are making the decision based on a 2-3% difference in equity, on a pot that we don't expect to go to showdown at least 2/3 of the time.

Unless you drastically widen his calling range, the strength of AT vs the other hands I mentioned is basically meaningless in terms of your decision. It amounts to something less than a big blind. In fact, I dare you to come up with an opening and calling range for HL that would lead to ATs being a push and QJs being a fold. (assuming only those 2 options).

Every other assumption we make in this hand has 10 x more important than the strength of our hand here if we jam.

[betgo]

ATs is not significantly different from KJs or QJs, but it is significantly ahead of 75s. I don't see how you say are hand is not important. Suited broadway cards and pps run pretty close and it doesn't matter much which we have. However, pushing here with an average hand or junk is much worse and pushing with a real hand is much better.

Also, the range TT+,AK may be misleading, as you may occasionally get loose calls, in which case ATs plays much better than 75s or A3s.

Versus AK,TT+.
JJ 43.3
A3s 30.3
ATs 30.2
44 30.1
75s 27.5
Q9o 25.5
T7o 22.0
72o 18.8

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically the situation is really good for HL for a resteal, as evidenced by nearly every option seeming awkward for us. Think about us having an even stronger hand like 99, it seems like a hard decision even then.

One thing I failed to note was that we were the 2 chipleaders at the table. So the combination of the awkward stacks, him pulling almost even with me, and him taking a stand to slow me down, make this a nearly perfect restealing opportunity for him.

However this assumes he gives me credit for understanding the situation myself (on the 1st level, but not on the 2nd level). Do you guys think he reads the average mid 20s player with a decent stack to understand that we are in a tough spot?
Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
If you think HL has reason to make a play on you, then definately push. It is close in cEV anyway. I would be suspicious of any reraise from a big stack name pro.

Also, the result for you is extremely good if you reresteal or bust HL. If he folds, you have 26K and HL has 15K, giving you a dominating stack. If you win, you have 41K, totally dominating the table, and you got rid of a strong player to your left.

[Syntec87]

results....!

[A_PLUS]

Betgo,

My problem is that this discussion would not be happening if the Hero held QTs, even though the EV is close enough that it should.

It is equivalent to raising a hand like A7o on the button, if you know you are folding to a resteal.