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#21
06-21-2007, 08:48 AM
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Re: River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U
Oink,
Thanks so much for your additional input! My biggest mistake was assuming too much....i.e., that he would bet AT aggressively, since he had TPTK, but meekly call with JT, for fear someone had a better kicker than his J, or would catch a Q on the Turn and his J wouldn't be an out for him going into the River. What I need to do, is as you pointed out, look at the whole Board, after the River card, and determine what possible Flush draws he may have. One final note: I don't have any trouble being wrong. None at all. I didn't know that I was right when I started this exercise. That's why I started it. I just want to see the answer in black and white, before I continue to bet out on the River when a Flush, a Straight,Two Pair and a Set are killing my Overpair to the Board. One final mistake I made: I did not consider those times my opponent will bet into me on the River when he makes a better hand, reducing the chances of me being up against a better hand when he checks the River. You see how much help you guys are? [ QUOTE ] This is my final input to any of your posts. IMO you overthink and overcomplicate simple things and refuse to accept that others may be right. I disagree with your ranges. [ QUOTE ] So, we have 27 hands where he now has a Pair or will pair his Jack on the River and call: 66/77/99;(18) A8s;(2) QTs;(2) QJs;(2) 98s;(3) [/ QUOTE ] What about KJ and AJ? While he may fold those a lot of ppl at 0.5/1 will call the turn. Assuming he will never play AT and KT this way is 100% wrong using Dan's terminology What about A8o and K8s? [ QUOTE ] We have x hands that are drawing to a Flush going into the River and will ck/raise the River: A6s-A9/AJs-AKs = 7 (I assume that he would not slowplay TPTK when his Top Pair is vulnerable to a K/Q/J) K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 5 (again, not slowplaying Top Pair) JTs =1 98s = 1 Total Flush draws: 14 [/ QUOTE ] here you assume he peels with K7hh but above you dont think he has K8s? (no hearts) [ QUOTE ] Then there is 88 (3) [/ QUOTE ] Has to be discounted for not c/r'ing the turn [ QUOTE ] and JTs (4) [/ QUOTE ] So he would play JTs this way but not AT? Make up your mind whether he will c/r his TP or not on the flop. [ QUOTE ] We'll also say he'll call with 1/2 of his AK hands, praying that is what we have. [/ QUOTE ] I think its safe to assume that AK as well as AQ is in his calling range on the river. Discounted yes. But he will be calling them sometimes. EDIT: No its not close. But keep convincing yourself that it is. 1 MORE EDIT: there is only 2 ways he can have JTs. Look at the board [ QUOTE ] K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 5 (again, not slowplaying Top Pair) [/ QUOTE ] There are only 3 of those. K7hh, K9hh and KQhh. The Jh and 8h are on the board [/ QUOTE ] 
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#23
06-21-2007, 09:46 AM
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Re: River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U
So you're playing 0.5/1 and have no real proof that villain is sane. WHY ISNT 23o IN HIS RANGE? This guys play nonsense. They don't play according to some hand chart or whatever. The last few hands were boring for this guy so he decides to raise T5o! I don't say T5o is clearly in his range, but yes, sometimes he has such a hand and he is clearly going to call down with it.
Like others said, you are overtinking this totally.
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#25
06-21-2007, 03:22 PM
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Re: River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] the bet has so much value its +EV EVEN IF YOU ALWAYS CHOSE THE WRONG DECISION AGAINST A C/R. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] DONT OVERTHINK 0.5/1 LHE. JUST PLAY STRAIGHTFOWARD AND VALUEBET THEM TO DEATH [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Seriously, it's not rocket science. You need to take Miles' undertitle to heart. Bet, Raise, Pray. Sometimes in some hands, you will be wrong, but a "value bet" is not "I have the best hand, so I bet" it's "I have the best hand more than 50% when he calls, so I bet"
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#26
06-21-2007, 06:30 PM
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Re: River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U
BET/FOLD > BET/CALL >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>
>>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>> CHECK BEHIND
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#27
06-21-2007, 06:53 PM
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Re: River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U
[ QUOTE ]
We have x hands that are drawing to a Flush going into the River and will ck/raise the River: A6s-A9/AJs-AKs = 7 (I assume that he would not slowplay TPTK when his Top Pair is vulnerable to a K/Q/J) K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 5 (again, not slowplaying Top Pair) JTs =1 98s = 1 Total Flush draws: 14 Then there is 88 (3) and JTs (4) that he'll ck/raise on the River [/ QUOTE ] The combinations are way off, using your ranges: A6s-A9/AJs-AKs = 4 Qh in your hand, Jh 8h on board K7s-K9s/KJs/KQs = 2 Qh in your hand, Jh 8h on board JTs = 0 Jh on board 98s = 0 8h on board Total Flush draws: 6 I would discount 88 to only 1 combo max since he didnt cr turn and he can only have 2 JTs Total CR combos : 9
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#28
06-21-2007, 07:04 PM
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Re: River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U
[ QUOTE ]
BET/FOLD > BET/CALL >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>&g t;>>>>>>> CHECK BEHIND [/ QUOTE ] I agree. What about if we're OOP? For some reason people never bluff check/raise the river but they seem to bluff raise it with a little more frequency. I'd still fold, though.
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#29
06-21-2007, 07:05 PM
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Re: River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U
i end up bet/calling out of position.
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#30
06-21-2007, 08:08 PM
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Re: River Decision with Pocket Qs H/U
[ QUOTE ]
I agree. What about if we're OOP? For some reason people never bluff check/raise the river but they seem to bluff raise it with a little more frequency. I'd still fold, though. [/ QUOTE ] I disagree with this as an empirical matter.
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Linear Mode
