Opinions on gambling early

MacAnthony · #1 03-01-2006, 04:52 PM

I have had this discussion with others, but I'm still not sure which way I think is better to go. The example I will use is from a hand last night (from memory).

I was playing a $11, 30 player SnG on PR. Starting stacks are t1500.

On hand 1, I had AK in MP. UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t20, there is another folder, then I make it t65. The guy 2 players after me pushes and it folds around to me.

What I'm curious about is if it's better to gamble early in a chance to double up or bust so that you have a better shot at cashing. I have in the past been a big proponant of gambling and moving on if I miss. I've been playing a lot of ring games though recently and I think it's affecting my thoughts on this. I don't like to get into coin flips in ring games and rather take down a lot of small pots and avoid the big ones unless I know I'm a favorite.

Just curious what others think about it.

#2 03-01-2006, 04:53 PM

RAISE BIGGER PREFLOP

MacAnthony · #3 03-01-2006, 04:57 PM

My raise doesn't really have any bearing on my question nor do I doubt it woulda changed the outcome of this hand. I could easily have been on the button with AK and MP pushes after a couple of limpers. The question is still do you gamble or not?

#4 03-01-2006, 04:59 PM

no gamble no future

but this is ez fold

Kristian · #5 03-01-2006, 05:01 PM

You gamble if it has a positive Expected Value.

splashpot · #6 03-01-2006, 05:02 PM

Fold. Think about it this way. Assume it's a coinflip. If you lose the coinflip, you lose your buyin. If you win the coinflip, you don't necesarrily double your buyin.

Gobgogbog · #7 03-01-2006, 05:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. Think about it this way. Assume it's a coinflip. If you lose the coinflip, you lose your buyin. If you win the coinflip, you don't necesarrily double your buyin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, I'm not so sure about this in a 30 person SNG. I am of course totally with you for 10 person SNGs.

edit: Assuming "coinflip" means a slight favorite to villain's range.

IWEARGOGGLES · #8 03-01-2006, 05:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Fold. Think about it this way. Assume it's a coinflip. If you lose the coinflip, you lose your buyin. If you win the coinflip, you don't necesarrily double your buyin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, I'm not so sure about this in a 30 person SNG. I am of course totally with you for 10 person SNGs.

edit: Assuming "coinflip" means a slight favorite to villain's range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes because beating 29 donks is so much harder than beating 9 donks. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

splashpot · #9 03-01-2006, 05:10 PM

I didn't see the 30 person part. In that case, it depends on what the payout structure is like. The more top heavy the payout is, the more likely I would be willing to gamble early.

MacAnthony · #10 03-01-2006, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. Think about it this way. Assume it's a coinflip. If you lose the coinflip, you lose your buyin. If you win the coinflip, you don't necesarrily double your buyin.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't the added equity in the tournament if I win counter the chance that I lose? If I win, I'm not guaranteed to double my buy in, but folding doesn't assure me of anything other than to see another hand either. I'm not saying I disagree, I'm just trying to think this through.