Barry Greenstein Bet Agaisnt Eli Elezra Good or bad Odds?

[CandaceT1984]

Barry will def. pay. From the times I've talked to him, I've def. gotten the impression that prop bets, Eli's sort of behavior i.e. the deal making is accepted. It's a loop hole and he found it. Now Barry has to pay up. Which I'm almost certain he will.

[captZEEbo]

wtf how can deal making be allowed in this bet?

[shaniac]

[ QUOTE ]
wtf how can deal making be allowed in this bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

It usually can't be, but who knows what they agreed to beforehand between Barry and Eli. Maybe Barry can inform us.

Also, lol @ everyone acting all shocked that Eli is winning a bracelet. He's probably pretty good at poker, even if he's a "fish at the highest levels," and I'd say 10-1 was a great price for Eli (bad bet for Barry), especially if deal making was allowed in the bet.

[Tofu_boy]

This really look bad for the game..
Hand #171 - There is a pause after fourth street so the two players can take a drink, tapping their cups together.

Elezra (3-8-2-K) and Nguyen (4-9-3-A) take it to sixth street, and Elezra helps Nguyen bet -- by reaching over and putting Nguyen's chips in the pot. Elezra then raises, and Nguyen calls all in.

seemlike they just having fun..

[sc000t]

Wow this deal convo would be extremely interesting. I'm not familiar with big mtt live deals, but always wondered what/if a ME deal would be like where you would factor in possible deals with poker sites/other companies and stuff like that.

Also, considering Eli a "fish" is a huge miscalulation IMHO. Never met the guy or played with him. I would think that he would play enough poker (like alot of us here) vs. regular pros that he would take it just as serious as we do. Not to mention the time he puts in with arguably the top players in the world on a dailey basis in a mixed game format. I think Barry's deal was good...ANd would be a good bet against anyone in the world, let alone Eli. BUT, for the amount of money Eli supposably has, and the amount of poker her plays (POKER...not just NLHE MTTs) that he would enter enough WSOP events and have a decent shot at winning a bracelt in say a 5-10 year span.

But 10:1 on a single year is still not the right price. And since im a book maker (which i'm not) I'd take prices like this for next year if people want action. Also, its funny that I wouldn't even wager 10:1 on say, Ivey/DN winning bracelts in a single year, but if someone would mention a TOP mtt player...someone that could/would play alot of WSOP events and not just NLHE, I would have to think twice about taking that action, but probably still would.

[LISceneSucks]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, its funny that I wouldn't even wager 10:1 on say, Ivey/DN winning bracelts in a single year, but if someone would mention a TOP mtt player...someone that could/would play alot of WSOP events and not just NLHE, I would have to think twice about taking that action, but probably still would.

[/ QUOTE ]

how could you not take 10:1 on ivey or negreanu??? you really think theyll go 10 years without winning a bracelet??? ivey is probably 3:1 and DN is probably 4:1

you gotta take into account them playing every game and every tourney they can

with that said...eli does not have same tourney results and may be close to 10:1...but i think if he played huge number of events he would get it done...the deal imo is unethical unless previously discussed between him and barry

[BackedUp]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd lay 503095676276:1 against him winning anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're on, put me down for 10 bucks

[TStoneMBD]

i played with eli quite a bit in this event and hes no stud8 expert.

when we got down to 2 tables this hand took place:

a player opened in ep with a 7, eli called with a queen with a few low cards behind him including an ace. i had split aces and smoothcalled. on 4th i caught an 8, the 7 caught an ace and eli bricked. we all checked. on 5th both me and the A7 caught a king. i bet and the AK7 raised. eli tanked forever and when he finally folded he showed his hand and proudly remarked about the great laydown he just made. of course we both had split aces and even i knew eli's split queens couldnt beat the opponent who raised and hed have to have the case ace in the deck to be ahead since i have the other two.

if you know anything about stud8 you know that eli looks like a huge fish in this hand.

i wouldnt classify him as a huge fish though. hes very aggressive and has good poker sense which is common for people who have super high stakes experience as they learn alot of excellent skills from great players. he was definitely +ev in this tournament, but hes certainly not some great player.

10:1 seems like a very good bet for greenstein, and you could argue that greenstein is the favorite just by looking at the two parties that made the bet. whos more likely to be the favorite in a prop bet between these 2 guys? besides, eli is unlikely to play many events, and even if he played 30 hed need a >50% ROI to be +EV in this bet, which may be doable for him but i doubt hes going to play that many events, especially since tournaments like the 50k horse are 5 day events.

[sc000t]

LIS,

I was talking about 10:1 for a SINGLE YEAR at WSOP for ivey/dn. BUT TBH, I think 5 years for Ivey OR DN to win a a WSOP event would still maaaaaaaaaaaaybe be a bad bet. I know the guys are good. And I know they play alot of events, and easier ones to win at that. Its much easier to win a stud8/ horse mtt when its limit and there isn't a billion people playing. But to be the number one player out of these fields is still a long shot regardless of skill.

Basically, all things equal in the 5 years, thats giving 2:1 on any single year at one of them pulling in a bracelet. I would gladly bet $1, $10, $100, $1,000 or $10,000 on any given person winning a brecelet in a single year @ 2:1.


EDIT: Also, TS makes a good point. Something that I didnt know. About Eli NOT playing many events, I was thinking he would play alot, just for the reason that he likes to play poker, has yet to win a wsop and has enough time and money on his hand to play all these events. Plus, the 50k horse event taking a so many days to finish (assuming he is in it past the first or second day) would kill his chances. ON TOP OF ALL THIS THO, 2:1 is a great deal for barry....let alot 10:1. AND barry has got to have better reasoning when it comes to making +EV prop bets on this sort of thing. amIright?

[pig4bill]

Eli has said in interviews that he plays tournaments completely differently than cash games. He plays much looser in cash games because he can re-load if he busts.