Live 100 NL, Turn raise with monster draw against PFR - good or bad?

[hezster]

OK, here's the situation:

Live 100 NL - Blinds $2/$3

Hero (UTG - $230) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] calls.
2 other callers.
Villain (SB - $100) raises to $20.
Hero calls.
Other callers fold.

Now, let's put aside, for the moment, the wisdom (or lack thereof) of limping UTG or calling 20% of Villain's stack with suited connectors.

Flop ($40): K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Villain checks.
Hero checks.
Hero senses a flopped set and want to take the free card to hit his draw.

Turn ($40): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain bets $15
Hero ??

Now, should Hero raise his monster draw, trying to take the pot right there or should he just take the good fortune of being able to draw cheaply. The answer, I suppose resides in what his fold equity is - or what are the chances that Villain has a set here or not. After all, this is a very common line for someone who has flopped a set to take.

So, I did a little EV analysis, weighing a raise of $35 after the Villain turn bet against a call. In doing so I had to make some assumptions:

Call scenario:

1) Assume that if Hero hits a straight, he stacks Villain (hard to read on board, Villain can't get away from set)
2) Assume that if Hero hits a flush, Villain folds to a river bet (not necessarily true in any sense, but for simplicity sake)
3) Assume if board pairs with a spade, Hero calls $30 bet on river

So, assuming Hero calls $15 on turn,

EV = -(0.66)*$15 {lost} + (0.159)*$55 {flush, no FH} - (0.045)*$45 {flush, FH} + (0.136)*$120 {straight}

= $13.14

Raise scenario:

1) Ruling out AA 'cause I don't think Villain would play it that way, assume that Villain pushes set of kings (or AK I suppose) and folds every other hand.
2) If Villain pushes Hero calls.

So, assuming Hero raises the turn bet to, say $50 (not relevant in calculation),

EV = x*$55 + (1-x)*(0.2955*$120 {hit} - 0.7045*$80 {miss})
= 75.9x - 20.9
where x = Fold Equity

So, for the two scenarios to be equal there needs to be a 45% chance that Villain will fold, which I don't think is too high, but may be borderline.

The question is will Villain have a hand >45% of the time in which he will take this line (i.e. check the flop, bet the turn). I guess it depends on the Villain.

What do you think? Are my assumptions reasonable?

[Chuck D]

wow preflop is disgustingly terrible

putting 1/5 your stack in without initiative with 9high, he's freerolling you postflop

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So, for the two scenarios to be equal there needs to be a 45% chance that Villain will fold, which I don't think is too high, but may be borderline.

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you aren't getting a fold more than ~10% of the time, I like how you think he has a flopped set on the flop, then on the turn think he's going to fold to a tiny raise 45% of the time

wtf

just call the turn, be glad he didn't blow you off your draw given how bad preflop was

[hezster]

I disagree that I'm not getting a fold more than 10% of the time. Keep in mind that this is live poker where players tend to be much less aggressive than online. I acknowledge that chances are he has a set. However, I've seen many players play AQ or 88 that way and I do think they would fold those hands to a turn raise, and this particular player was rather passive. The question is whether ~45% of the time that line would be represented by {AQ,TT,etc.}. That might be too high, but I definitely think the number is higher than 10%.

Also, I wouldn't consider a raise from $15 to $50, particularly when Villian only has $65 left tiny.

[nickcee]

Fold PF. Just call his bet. He is not folding anywhere close to 45% of the time. There is no way to "know if he flopped a set, but if you did,
you suddenly change your mind when your hand becomes bigger-bad thinking-I've been doing it lately myself.
Lastly, if you were to raise, putting aside it being a good play or a bad one, you should raise enough to put him all-in.

[Roger Mainfield]

I typed something up but it doesn't really apply. The problem is preflop, you have no room to maneuver due to his stack size. And this thinking he has a set..... I can't even fathom that, sets are really really rare, and I woulnd't believe that someone has one without a LOT more evidence. I don't even have advice, I tried to write it twice, but there is nothing you can do but check, he only has like 65$ behind now.

[hezster]

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Fold PF.

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I have no argument with that. But putting that aside...

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He is not folding anywhere close to 45% of the time.

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That's probably right. Originally, when I was thinking about the hand on the drive home, I assigned a 25% chance that he would have a hand that he would fold in that situation. I think that's about right. 45% is too much to expect.


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Lastly, if you were to raise, putting aside it being a good play or a bad one, you should raise enough to put him all-in.

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Fair point. It really makes no sense to raise just enough to leave him with $30 left. That actually brings up another question about putting ppl all-in which I'll address in another thread.

[hezster]

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And this thinking he has a set..... I can't even fathom that, sets are really really rare, and I woulnd't believe that someone has one without a LOT more evidence.

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Well, the thinking that he has a set comes with the combination of the oddity of not following through with a continuation bet on the flop and a broadway card flopping. I have seen that behavior so often, at least live, as a lot of ppl think that you never bet the nuts on the flop, especially headsup, so alarm bells immediately ring in my head when I see a check on the flop like that. On the other hand, as I mentioned in a previous post, there are some players who simply will not bet when they miss the flop, even headsup, or freeze up when an overcard to their pair flops, so it is not a foregone conclusion that he has {KK,AA,AK}.

Anyway, I acknowledge the problem with preflop but I was really getting to the turn situation when can occur regardless of preflop. For instance, if I was on the button and there were four other limpers and they all called the raise, I don't think too many would have a problem with a preflop call (at least I hope not). If they all folded the turn, the situation would be no different, except that the pot would be larger. However, you could imagine comparable scenarios with regard to bet sizes, etc.

[diebitter]

Why on earth did you call the preflop raise?

It's very -EV.

[hezster]

Why? Tired of folding - two playable hands in the span of 90 minutes, including having to fold KQo preflop to a raise (fortunately - the raiser had AQ). Maybe I should have concocted a different preflop scenario so that everyone would not focus on that aspect.

[Chuck D]

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Why? Tired of folding - two playable hands in the span of 90 minutes, including having to fold KQo preflop to a raise (fortunately - the raiser had AQ). Maybe I should have concocted a different preflop scenario so that everyone would not focus on that aspect.

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play online or play in games with deeper stacks

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Also, I wouldn't consider a raise from $15 to $50, particularly when Villian only has $65 left tiny.


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its tiny relative to the pot