NL 100 AKs

[Roger Mainfield]

No read on opponent, other than he is a bit short and probably not that great.

I am dealt AKcc in the co.
Effective stacks are 75$


My opponenent (1 to my right) raises to 3, I reraise to 8$ folds back to him and he calls.

<font color="blue"> Everyone was folding to my 3 bets so I lowered the size, this is the most major mistake in the hand I believe.</font>

Flop 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Pot: 17$
Check call a 7$ bet
<font color="blue"> My thinking here is that the pot is gonna get big compared to his stack, I likely have the best hand and he is probably drawing mighty slim.</font>

Turn 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Pot: 31$

He bets 15$ I call

<font color="blue"> I am underreping my hand and still confident I am ahead, if I raise he wil prob shut down unless it is a chop, so I give him some more rope.</font>

River 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Pot: 61$
He bets 30$, I raise him all in (like 20 more)

<font color="blue"> He is commited with anything he raises with to call I think, and I am still confident I have the best hand so I get it in.</font>

I rarely slowplay, but based on this board I felt that this was one of the time, like it?

[mack848]

I like it.

Rather than lower my 3bet, I prefer to widen my 3bet range.

[spector]

Seems like a pretty good line to me and one I would take on occasion. Not sure on the river though, do you think he has air here on the river or possibly a weaker ace?

Did he flip 55 or something?

[DougieG]

[ QUOTE ]
Rather than lower my 3bet, I prefer to widen my 3bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]

A+

[Roger Mainfield]

Again't a CO or something similar raise I will re-raise a lot of stuff 67s-9Ts KQs as well as normal premium hands and when deep all pp's. I hadn't really though about just raising more stuff and shutting out peoples implied odds. I will think about it some more, A though on that I play at mansion and so no PT. I will have to have a pretty good read before I make it light, cause it seems like people are very tight with raises pre.

I think my opponent could have qq-kk rarely there, aj-aq sometimes and a chop a good percentage of the time as well.

He had 33 for the straight if anyone is interested.

[bottomset]

I think the turn is a fold

river fold&gt;call&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt;push

[Roger Mainfield]

getting 3-1?? I think we see AQ and AK here very often, and sometimes an aggro JJ-KK.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
getting 3-1?? I think we see AQ and AK here very often, and sometimes an aggro JJ-KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think fold and call are close on the river

I think pushing is really bad

[RipperTEQ]

3 bet 72off and show, that will get you some action. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I like the river call over push.

Think about it this way...you can put in $30 to win $91 or you put in $50 to win $111. How often would he need to bet a worse hand to make pushing &gt; calling?

x($111) + (1-x)(-$50) &gt; x($91) + (1-x)(-$30)
111x + 50x - 50 &gt; 91x + 30x - 30
161x - 50 &gt; 121x - 30
40x &gt; 20
x &gt; .50

If 50% of the time you are ahead, then you get the following EVs for each:

EVcall = .50($91) + .50(-$30) = $45.50 - $15 = +$30.50
EVpush = .50($111) + .50(-$50) = $55.50 - $25 = +$30.50

So without a clear read as an opponent being aggressive, this is a call not a push because not many opponents will bet marginal hands on the river, except in the low limits. Even then, you will lose money in the long run without a read.

[Roger Mainfield]

So he needs to call at least 50% of the time on the river with a worse hand for a push to be correct? (self-obvious)

Anyway back to the turn, you really think this is a fold? Someone bets 1/2 pot into you on 2 streets and you fold TPTK?(specially since we underepped our hand) I really think we see worse aces, or AK here a lot of the time.

Here is my thinking on possible hands by the river:
22-55, these hands all have either a straight or a set. They are quite possible but pf makes them iffy.

99-KK, very opponent dependant, aggro opponent might try betting them both streets, but would usually check the river.

AJ-AK, Very possible, hands trying to get value the whole way with value bets on all streets.

Note: I didn't even include air here, as I would have noticed if Villian had done crazy stuff prior to this (I hope)
This was my thinking in general, I just felt that top pair type hands were the most likely hands(60-70%). And if we narrow it down to the river, The river will be bet by sets and straights all the time, and by AJ-AK most of the time. I don't really do hand distribution math, but basically

IF# of combination of 22-66) &lt; (river bet frequency)(# of combination of (AK(most likely)+AQ(fairly likely)+AJ(rarely))

So if the above statement is true I shove, if its false I call(or fold if it is really small (less than 30:81).
Note: I assume that all hands that bet call a shove (20 into 111)

I haven't plugged numbers in, and I would like to say that after looking at hundreds of posts on 2p2 i've never done this much math/logic.

This post came off pretty snoty reading it over, but I'm no good with grammar. I would appreciate some thoughts on this, I don't usually go into this much detail.